SCO Summit in Pakistan & attending Indian Foreign Minister
The upcoming SCO summit may be overshadowed for Pakistan by the presence of India’s Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Typically, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not attend the SCO’s Council of Heads of Government meetings, which is the organization’s second-highest forum, instead delegating a minister. Jaishankar’s attendance will mark the first time in nearly ten years that a high-ranking Indian official has visited Pakistan.
Both countries could benefit from holding side meetings during this event. Bilateral trade has been severely restricted since 2019, following the Pulwama attacks and India’s Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act. In response, India imposed a 200 percent tariff on Pakistani imports, and Pakistan halted formal trade with India, though unofficial exchanges have persisted.
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According to a report by Sanjay Kathuria for FP, Pakistan could significantly stabilize its struggling economy through renewed trade with India. If trade relations were normalized, Pakistan’s exports could increase by up to 80 percent, contributing substantially to GDP growth and job creation. Pakistan, which exported only $31.5 billion in goods in 2022, could see an additional $25 billion in exports if trade with India were fully restored.
FILE PHOTO: India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar speaks during a joint press conference with Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong at Iikura Guest House in Tokyo, Japan July 29, 2024. Tomohiro Ohsumi/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Beyond trade, stronger economic ties with India could help Pakistan tackle pressing economic issues, such as high inflation and energy shortages. For India, the economic benefits of expanded trade with Pakistan should not be dismissed. While some analysts downplay the potential gains, these assessments are based on limited trade data. Pakistan’s large population of 236 million, with over a third under the age of 14, offers a promising market that could, over time, surpass Bangladesh as one of India’s top trading partners. Even with current trade barriers, India’s exports to Pakistan have reached over $1 billion, and indirect trade remains substantial. Tourism revenues for both countries could also see significant growth.
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A crucial factor is whether Pakistan’s military, which holds significant influence, would support a trade-focused strategy. The military, increasingly focused on fostering a strong economy, might back such an approach for both short-term gains and long-term security benefits. The modern Pakistani army is more invested in economic stability than in the past, and it is likely to prioritize this goal without allowing external interference.
The question remains: can Subrahmanyam Jaishankar navigate this opportunity skillfully?
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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9
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