Lahore, 22nd June: Afghanistan has been a war zone for the past 4 decades. Since 9/11, an entire generation has sprung up under foreign occupation and incessant conflict.
The Afghan Peace Process which was agreed by all the stakeholders in February 2020 did witness some progress as both sides released their prisoners and sat down to discuss the post-withdrawal governance and strategy.
Nonetheless, the progress among Afghan stakeholders has been at a glacial pace this year. On another side, after Joe Biden’s inauguration in the US, the superpower has sped up its efforts to leave Afghanistan. They are expected to pack up their bags by 4th July instead of the previously declared September 11, 2021.
Thus, amidst a bulwark between both the sides in Afghanistan and the US pressure to leave without ensuring a progressive and assiduous withdrawal plan has further jeopardized the situation.
There now exists a vacuum in curtailing insurgency and counterterrorism. The governance deficit has also widened as Afghan Security Forces struggle, tipping the balance in favor of the Taliban who have gained the upper hand in many districts.
Accompanied with this, the Taliban have also spurred up violence and terror activities in Afghanistan. Despite agreeing upon mitigating violence during peace talks, in the absence of US counterterrorism and defense, the Taliban have resorted to violence to gain an upper hand by claiming more territory and resources.
Accruing from weak law and order situation, spurring Taliban violence and abating US attention, the Afghan National Security Forces are disaffected and disenchanted more than ever. Their numbers are diminishing as they no longer have access to US strategic and operational aid. Moreover, the Taliban have also agreed to accept members from the forces in case they show remorse for their actions.
Amid these circumstances, the Afghan Peace Process has remained quiescent. The dissonance between the Taliban insurgents and the Afghan government has translated into an unbridgeable chasm between the two sides.
The future of the female population, the model of governance, the role of religion, questions on economic sustainability, and the composition of the Afghan Army and the contribution of the Taliban have remained unanswered despite pressure on both sides.
The Afghan Forces are wary of the dilution, hassle and jeopardy post US withdrawal. The Taliban are using dilatory tactics and seeking a diminished US role to enforce their writ through violence and insurgency.
The US, in this conundrum, is seeking ways to ensure its presence despite not being present on the ground in Afghanistan. It is mending its differences with regional neighbors to acquire airbases for counterterrorism operations and intelligence gathering.
Pakistan has so far paid lip service to this proposal owing to domestic resistance and the country’s inclination towards China. Central Asian states including Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have also remained tepid as they are not in a position to go against the wishes of Vladimir Putin.
As a result, the nearest US base could be deployed in the Middle East that would require planes and drones to fly as many as nine hours each way for a mission in Afghanistan.
This will make US presence in Afghanistan tenuous as the former will have to bear extra fuel expense and will struggle in reinforcement operations in case of commando raids and crisis situations.
What could the implications be in this scenario? In terms of the internal situation in Afghanistan, the country can plunge into civil war if consensus between the Taliban and the Afghan government is not reached.
The presence of other splinter groups like IS Khorasan can also act as showstoppers and jeopardize any peace initiatives, providing a lot of ammunition to other detractors.
Moreover, post US withdrawal, unresolved predicaments and leftovers of the peace process will haunt Afghan people, including women. Governance crisis will further welcome extremist elements in creating unrest. There are various questions that are yet to be answered and agreed upon.
At a regional level, history is repeating itself in Afghanistan. Competition among different warring factions for territorial control makes the regional situation extremely volatile.
The Afghan War, like before, can spill over in other countries. It will reinflame terrorism in Pakistan as splinter groups from TTP will resurge terrorism in the country. The Pak-Afghan border across the Durand Line is porous and inaccessible terrain to curb insurgency.
The regional economic initiatives like China Pakistan Economic Corridor under the banner of the Belt and Road Initiative will also be under great threat as economic integration will be under the shadow of insurgency and terrorism.
Thus, the situation at the moment in Afghanistan is of great concern. The hurriedly carried out US withdrawal will likely leave vacuums and deficits. Regional countries must encourage the stakeholders to engage in dialogue while remaining nonaligned.
It is important that judicious action and result-oriented discussion should be carried out so that history doesn’t repeat itself. Afghan people and their neighbors have had enough, it is time that they get the peace they truly deserve.
The writer is a Computer Science graduate from LUMS.
shanawaraziz@gmail.com
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