Sept 9, 2021: Though the theme for this year’s BRICS Summit is “Cooperation for Sustainability, Stability and Consensus”, the talks are likely to focus on the COVID 19 pandemic, security and Afghanistan.

For the second year in a row, the annual gathering of the world’s leading emerging economies, including Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (abbreviated BRICS) will be held on Thursday.

The summit will be chaired by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will attend with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Xi’s attendance, who is known for his selective appearances, is particularly important. “China is sending a signal that it is still pursuing a multipolar world,” according to Ian Johnson, a senior fellow in the study of China at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“It is also part of China’s ongoing foreign policy to reduce US influence in the world, as other groups in countries like the BRICS have pursued.”

Like their counterparts in the developed economy, BRICS members are still struggling with the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. But recovery is not the same, and virus-related barriers are common.

China – the world’s second-largest economy – is bouncing back from last year’s COVID-19 blow. The latest good news came on Tuesday when government figures showed that exports had risen faster than expected last month.

India, which suffered a devastating second wave of Covid 19 earlier this year, is on track for the world’s fastest growth by the end of the year, while Russia’s economy has returned to pre-pandemic strength.

Brazil and South Africa are behind this group. Brazil’s economy shrank unexpectedly in the three months ending in June, and political unrest is further undermining this view. South Africa’s economy grew 1.2 percent in the second quarter, but is expected to shrink in the third quarter after deadly riots in the country.

Although much can be achieved through mutual cooperation, relations between the five BRICS countries are marked by changing alliances and changing strategic interests – especially where Afghanistan is concerned.

It will be interesting to see if this meeting has any positive value in aligning their policies with Afghanistan, which is now under Taliban control.

“It’s hard to agree on something like Afghanistan,” Johnson said. They will be united in not wanting terrorism to take root in the region as it did before 9/11, but beyond that, they have different interests.

Analysts say China’s biggest concern in Afghanistan is that it could create a security vacuum on its own borders.

Beijing also has potentially beneficial economic ties that it can deepen and develop with the new Taliban government, such as mining and extracting Afghanistan’s mineral resources, including rare earth minerals that are important for high-tech manufacturing.

Although the Indian Foreign Ministry did not specify which regional issues the summit would address, along with India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, Afghanistan is expected to remain at the top of its agenda.

India has backed the former US-backed Afghan government.

According to Indian media reports, on Wednesday, just hours after the Taliban announced their new caretaker government, Doval met with his Russian counterpart, General Nikolai Patrushev, to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.

India has warned that Afghanistan could become a haven for armed militant groups. It is particularly concerned about the situation in IIOJK, a Muslim-majority area it manages only a part of, where insurgency has been going on for years.

India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Dialogue or “Quad” with Australia, Japan and the United States – which is increasingly concerned about China’s dominance.

Tensions remain high between China and India over border clashes last winter. Analysts say the violence has stopped, but it still looks like an unstable situation compared to the strong commitment of peaceful non-combat resolutions.

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