Can China cripple Taiwan without using a single shot?

Concerns that the Communist Party might someday seize control of Taiwan, possibly through force, have intensified in recent years due to Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive stance towards the self-governing island. China’s refusal to denounce Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further exacerbated these fears.

In this context, analysts and military strategists have long considered two main strategies China might employ: a full-scale invasion or a military blockade. According to a newly released report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), China could also use “gray zone” tactics—actions just below the threshold of war—by deploying the China Coast Guard, its maritime militia, and various police and maritime safety agencies to enforce a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan. This could involve cutting off access to ports and essential supplies like energy for Taiwan’s 23 million residents.

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In recent years, China has escalated pressure on Taiwan, raising concerns that tensions could lead to open conflict. While the threat of invasion looms large, Beijing has other methods to coerce or annex Taiwan without direct invasion. Under Xi Jinping, China’s military and economic intimidation of Taiwan, a prosperous free-market economy, has become increasingly pronounced.

Despite never having governed Taiwan, the ruling Communist Party claims the island and has vowed to “reunify” with it, by force if necessary. Taiwan’s coast guard, with only 10 ocean-going ships and about 160 smaller vessels, is insufficient to counter a quarantine, the report indicates.

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US President Joe Biden has signaled a stronger commitment than required by law, repeatedly stating he would deploy American troops to defend Taiwan. This stance, which diverges from the previous US policy of “strategic ambiguity,” has been somewhat moderated by White House officials. However, if US military forces were to intervene in what China deems a law enforcement action, it could be perceived as initiating military conflict.

The CSIS report highlights that a quarantine, unlike a blockade, would not necessitate China restricting access to the Taiwan Strait. This would undermine one of Washington’s key legal arguments for intervention under international law, which is to maintain freedom of navigation in an international waterway.

So, the answer posed in the headline is a definitive yes!

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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9 

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