In a report published in the China CDC Weekly by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention, mathematicians said that China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more effective vaccinations or specific treatments. Using August data from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, mathematicians estimated the possible consequences if China adopted a strategy to control the pandemic like these countries.

China’s daily new cases would reach at least 637,155 if it adopted the United States’ pandemic strategy, the report said.

And daily cases would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it imitated France, it said.

“The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly induce an unaffordable burden on the medical system,” the report said.

“Our findings have raised a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to embrace ‘open-up’ strategies resting solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries.”