In a perplexing turn of events, Iran’s recent strike on Pakistan, targeting the separatist group Jaish al-Adl, has left many questioning the motives behind such a move. Rather than a strategic assault on a militant outfit, the attack appears more symbolic, signaling Iran’s perceived need to flex its military muscles in the face of perceived threats.
The sequence of events unfolded as Iran launched missiles into Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region and Syria before turning its focus on Pakistan. Despite its aim at Jaish al-Adl, the attack resulted in the tragic death of at least two children. In response, Pakistan swiftly retaliated, launching attacks on Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, resulting in the death of at least nine people.
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The timing of Iran’s strike, coupled with the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear power, raises eyebrows globally. Analysts attribute these aggressive maneuvers to mounting domestic and external pressures faced by Iran. The recent killing of Sayyed Razi Mousvi by Israel, followed by a devastating attack on mourners attending the memorial of Iran’s late IRGC chief Qassem Soleimani, claimed by ISIL of Afghanistan, may have contributed to Iran’s heightened sense of vulnerability. Additionally, Jaish al-Adl’s claim of responsibility for an attack on the Rask police station, resulting in the death of 11 Iranian security personnel, further strained tensions.
Critics argue that these actions reveal a potential intelligence lapse on Iran’s part. Despite ongoing complaints between the two nations about militant groups operating within their borders, the situation had not escalated to the point of severing diplomatic ties.
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Interestingly, on the very day of Iran’s strike on Pakistan, Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul-Haq Kakar was seen shaking hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum meeting at Davos. Both countries were concurrently conducting joint naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.
While Iran’s strike is seen as a message to the U.S. and Israel, Pakistan’s swift response sends a signal to Afghanistan. The risk of an all-out conflict does not seems plausible, with China having interests in both nations. It is hoped that rationality will prevail, and the international community will play a crucial role in defusing tensions before they escalate further.
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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9
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