Fourth wave of Covid-19 in India from June, says study
As the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic shows a declining trend in India, Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) researchers have predicted that the fourth wave may set in around June 22 in the country.
According to the research conducted by IIT-K researchers, India is likely to witness the fourth covid-19 wave in mid to late June, and the surge is to continue for about 4 months. However, the severity of the wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses.
This research was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur’s Mathametic department using a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe.
This IIT-K study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv and is yet to be peer-reviewed.
According to the researchers, the data indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.
“Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022,” they said.
“Moreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022,” the researchers added.
