This article is written by Major (r) Haroon Rasheed.
India’s recently unveiled master hydropower plan in the strategically sensitive region of Ladakh has raised serious concerns in Pakistan and among international water experts, who warn of a potential crisis brewing along the Indus River.
The plan, which includes ten major water projects, is aimed at expanding India’s hydropower capacity in its northernmost territories. The projects are being positioned as a means to boost local energy independence and development. However, critics argue that these dams and diversions could have far-reaching geopolitical and environmental consequences.
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Key Project Locations
The Indian government has confirmed that the new hydropower projects will focus on several critical areas in the Ladakh region. So far, the following sites have been named:
Achinthang Village
Sanjak
Parfela
Sunt Ladakh (Batalik)
Khalsi City
Additional five locations (names announced but not publicly listed in detail)
According to analysts, these sites were strategically selected for their proximity to tributaries of the Indus River, which originate in Tibet and flows through India into Pakistan. The projects are expected to include dam construction, water diversion channels, and power generation facilities.
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The Threat to the Indus River System
Once operational, these projects are estimated to reduce the flow of water into Pakistan by as much as 23 million acre-feet—a staggering figure, considering the central role the Indus plays in Pakistan’s agriculture, drinking water supply, and overall ecosystem. The Indus River is the lifeline of Pakistan’s economy, supporting over 90% of its agricultural activity and providing water to millions across Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan.
The Indus Water Treaty, signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan under the mediation of the World Bank, has long governed water-sharing arrangements. However, recent Indian infrastructure activity in disputed regions like Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh has triggered alarm bells in Islamabad. Pakistani officials claim that India’s hydropower ambitions threaten to undermine the delicate balance established by the treaty.
A Civilizational Lifeline at Risk
Environmentalists emphasize that the Indus is not just a river—it is a civilizational artery. Entire communities, cultural practices, and traditional ways of life are centered around the river. A reduction in its flow could have devastating consequences not just for crops and livestock but also for the cultural and social fabric of southern Pakistan.
“Tampering with the Indus means tampering with centuries of history and human settlement,” said one Pakistani hydrologist. “This is not a technical matter alone—it’s a question of survival.”
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Political Underpinnings and Recent Violence
Adding to the already tense atmosphere, a recent attack in Pahalgam, located in Indian-administered Kashmir, has further fueled suspicions. While officially blamed on militants, several Pakistani analysts and commentators allege the attack was an “inside job,” orchestrated by Indian security apparatus or nationalist think tanks.
They claim the motive was to draw international sympathy toward India, thereby justifying the accelerated rollout of controversial infrastructure projects in disputed territory. This narrative has gained traction on social media and in Pakistani political circles, who see the timing of the attack as suspicious, given the near-simultaneous announcement of the hydropower plans.
Regional and International Implications
Water security in South Asia is already fragile due to climate change, glacier melt, and population growth. Experts warn that unilateral water development in transboundary river basins could exacerbate tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors. The World Bank, which plays an observer role in the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty, has yet to officially respond to the latest developments.
In the meantime, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has signaled that it may take up the issue at international forums, including the United Nations and the International Court of Justice, if India moves ahead with the projects without bilateral consultation.
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Conclusion
India’s Ladakh hydropower master plan may be aimed at solving internal energy problems and boosting infrastructure in remote regions, but its broader implications could spark a regional crisis. As Pakistan braces for a possible reduction in its water supply, diplomatic and environmental channels will need to be urgently activated to prevent further escalation. The future of millions of people—and the stability of an entire region—may depend on how these waters are managed.
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This article is written by Major (r) Haroon Rasheed.
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