Have been holding back in the hope of being proved wrong:
1. That Modi’s Kashmir Move wasn’t a very well thought out, ideally timed and properly sanctioned endeavour.
2. That the free world led by Trump’s America with other pretenders to the throne would fulfill the promises held out to people struggling for their right of self determination.
3. That led by KSA, Ummah’s Phoenix will rise from its dead ashes for Kashmiris.
4. That, in a nutshell, its not a fait accompli and that, like always, we aren’t reactive only.
5. That we aren’t at a dead end, left with only two options;
Unfortunately, twelve days, many martyred and injured Kashmiris, a UNSC Consultative Session, a bitterly divided house and pile of “sane – logical advices” later, I find us exactly where we were on 5 August 2019. Alone, economically weak, gobbling up rhetoric of all kind and, people like me, wise after the event, castigating everyone and everything.
Simply put, all that analysts like me could come up with was \'to find an out of the box\' solution since war is bad, and it is and also because we want to win the trophy for \'BEST BOY SCOUT\' in the world. Apparently we have volunteered to ensure WORLD PEACE AT ALL COSTS.
Frustrated, perhaps scared as well, we seem to be concentrating on a tree only and forgetting the jungle altogether, cynicism overriding cold logic and blanking out few minor but very interesting aspects;
While we were busy fighting each other to death, nature threw up International and Indian Big Money’s poster boy, Modi as leader of the world’s so called largest secular democracy. He set about it in earnest and totally destroyed the facade of secularism to begin with. In the process he Brahminised (my term) nationalism completely, HINDUTVA for easy reference. It’s downside was that non Brahmins in India and we in Pakistan were jolted into recognizing the validity of TWO NATION THEORY like never before.
Unconcerned and totally unaffected, Modi continued to pave the way for RSS agenda reducing his opposition to bare minimum just for appearances sake. With secular out, quite a bit of democracy as well, the world is now confronting a true fascist country which could burst at it seams given the ever growing fissiparous tendencies. Or if successful, it could emerge as the behemoth hungry for more.
If imaginary surgical strikes against Pakistan were highlights of Modi’s first term, his 5 August move against Kashmir has the portends of becoming his “crowing glory”. It could also be his and India’s “Waterloo” that is, if Pakistan and its leadership’s take it as their “Dunkirk”. We must extend our gratitude to this man for creating this opportunity.
Mr Modi, a huge thank you and heartiest congratulations for succeeding beyond all expectations.
Thank you very much for providing chance after chance for people in Pakistan to galvanize themselves into a nation.
Thank you for converting doubters to the justness of Kashmir Cause and amplifying the reasons why Indian minorities including Dalits and Kashmiris must be liberated from the vice like hold of Brahmin Zionism.
Thank you also for showing up the free world, champions of democracy, as well as human rights, for what they are; slaves of big money, national interests pegged around their hunger for ever more power. It is just a coincidence that only Muslims are victims in this game. Or is it?
More importantly, exposing majority of Arab States, all Muslims, very ably led by KSA, the so called spiritual leader of them all, for whatever is their worth. They now will have a huge task proving that they are not worse or at least as bad as MONEY LENDING Zionists or Hindu Banyas. And that their financial support to Pakistan isn’t merely for services rendered. That concept of Ummah is nothing more than another trap specially for people in Pakistan. I am not blaming them if they are being led by their national and economic interests, merely pointing out our follies. Our misconceptions could not have been clarified if Modi had not done 5 August on us.
Pakistan stands alone at hour of one of its greatest trials, as serious as 1971, existential, nothing less. Their deliberate choice not to stand by us will be detrimental to whatever plans we might have, unfair but then it is a real world. Pakistanis should remember this cold reality. Their time will come, not too far in future.
And thank you for giving us your Defence Minister who swallowed both his feet just as UNSC went in to session to discuss Kashmir. Everyone understands that “No First Use” by way of Nuclear Strategy isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. However, when a nuclear state as belligerent and irresponsible as India starts talking about openly then it is definitely a threat. Pakistan never had any doubts about it but the world at large must have realized that Kashmir actually is the only Nuclear Flashpoint around the globe. That it would involve four out of eight recognized Nuclear Powers directly is a given. That it would burn down the world, has been vectored into Kashmir Imbroglio by Mr Ram Nath extremely successfully.
Internationalization of Kashmir Issue in all its dimensions including somewhat dubious distinction of being the only Nuclear Flashpoint is perhaps the most telling consequence of Modi’s adventure. MAD (mutually assured destruction) now has another explanation to it; Modi, Amit , Doval = MAD, main architects of this adventure. Our thanks are due to this MAD Trio as well.
This series of thank yous gets a bit tricky here but can’t be avoided if one has to be as objective as the circumstances demand. Thank you very much Modi Sir for laying bare the fact that we resemble proverbial headless chicken at a time when we should have been completely united under an able “leadership” raring to go at the enemy busy severing our jugular. Common man in the street was all charged up expecting another Quaid to lead them on. Or at least a political leadership able to rise above itself. We found pettiness instead, divisive and imprisoned in their own narrow mindedness. Instead of garnering heightened public emotions and presenting much needed united front, they not only squandered the opportunity but are also forcing us back to pre 5 August bickering lot. What an achievement by our political elite and all in a matter of days.
Where do we go from here? Being alone doesn’t stop us from standing up and being counted. We are economically weak, not physically done in. Quite a lot of sensibilities would be disturbed when I quote Taliban’s example in this regard, an undeniable fact though. Granted that we are “peace” loving and therefore, our FM has ruled out war. Only a moron would want one but then alternatives should also be well known. He has also ruled out support from “Ummah” or any one else for that matter. He has all but given up on chances of success of our initiatives in UNSC or other regional and international forums.
That’s the length and breadth of our diplomacy, giving up after the very first hurdle. Someone probably forgot to advice him that “war is actually diplomacy by other means”. Someone should also have told him that requesting or preaching for peace would ultimately lead to humiliating capitulation.
Why would anyone listen to us if we aren’t ready to go the distance for our just cause? World would be fully justified in thinking that either we don’t believe in it or else we are ready to give up on first sign of trouble. Or else that we are ready to be persuaded off our high horse provided “right kind of incentive” is forthcoming. We have done that before. Why not now?
However, this time stakes are different. Hope I am wrong. I pray that I am absolutely out of mind but I have no doubts that any compromise now would see us being kicked back on Punjab’s side of River Jhelum in next phase of this game. Its THE MOST DANGEROUS POSSIBILITY if India gets enough time and space to reasonably consolidate itself in IHK. Third phase in this Great Game is unthinkable but not beyond logical threat assessment.
Just as a reminder, my conclusion was that Nuclear Pakistan has to go because it is the biggest stumbling block in the path of powers to be. According to their conclusions, we are an anomaly anyway. Look at a world map without Pakistan (Allah Karim forbid) to understand what I mean.
Being in a reactive mode we have allowed quite a head start to India. Not that we could have stopped 5 August short of a war but could have launched our own counter to curtail India’s freedom of action aimed at averting present crisis which has been termed as HINDUS VICTORY AGAINST ISLAM by Washington Post – of all the people.
Finally, what could or should be done if Expansionist India has to be stopped in its tracks. It all depends on Pakistan’s reading of long term consequences leading to its Strategic Objectives, which in simple terms, have been reduced to either of the following;
Accept this fait accompli and do whatever it takes to stop any further expansion by India led powers to be , now and in the future.
2. EVICT INDIA FROM KASHMIR.
Its a long term aggressive option , has been adopted in fits and starts and hasn’t yielded requisite results. Powers to be didn’t support us then but we kept it on the boil at varying temperatures.
14 days and lot of Kashmiris’s blood mixed water down the rivers into Pakistan, our leadership seems to have made its choice. Hope it’s not former but current and fashionable pragmatism is in its favour. Later appeals to emotionally charged lot but if successful, could create a stabler Asia and calmer Indo-Pacific waters. Both are fraught with huge dangers for us as well the world.
Here’s the twist to this whole game. May seem ironical and pretty wonky but I feel this choice would have been made after necessary consultations between Pakistan, China and Russia. Inclusion of Iran and Turkey would have been great.
If not then our troubles haven’t even begun yet.
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