India’s decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 is expected to have an alarming impact on Pakistan, as the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee predicted a 21% water shortage in Pakistan during the early Kharif season due to a sudden decrease in Chenab River inflows.
India also closed the gates of the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River, causing water levels to drop significantly and affecting flow to Pakistan. The Central government is planning similar measures on the Kishanganga Dam to punish Pakistan.
The IRSA advisory committee has put a grim picture for Pakistan over a sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows at Marala due to a short supply by India, which can impact water availability during the early Kharif season. The meeting was held to approve the Anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the balance period of Kharif from May to September 2025.
“The Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of Early Kharif (May – June 10), and Late Kharif (Jun 11 – September) season,” the IRSA said in a press release. “It was noted with concern unanimously that a sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to a short supply by India would result in more shortages in the early Kharif season.”
The committee declared an overall shortage of 21% during the early Kharif season in Pakistan, “in case supplies in the River Chenab remain normal”. However, the situation is being monitored daily, and if the decrease in Chenab River flow continues, the shortages would be revisited accordingly.
The water levels of the Chenab River witnessed a significant drop in Akhnoor, Jammu and Kashmir, after the closure of gates at the Baglihar and Salal Dams, which may impact water flow to Pakistan.
