PBF says Trade with India may be Banned Permanently till Article 370 is Restored

Islamabad, July 6 (Online Int’l): President Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) Sahibzada Usman Zulfiqar on Monday said that there was no use talking to India on the restoration of trade unless it lifted the curfew and restored the special status of Indian held Kashmir. He said that to India’s misfortune, it has been taken over by extremist and racist Hindus. Only a person with an extremist mindset would do what they have done in Kashmir by keeping it under curfew for the last 10 months. Now Prime Minister Narendra Modi is offering Kashmir’s domicile to the Indian business community in order to further deprive the Kashmiris of their rights.

The PBF President said that since 70 years bilateral trade was largely favoured to India even against the wisdom of the SAFTA agreement. Indian exports continued unabated at a monthly average of $150 million while Pakistan’s decreased from $30 million to $4 million. Pakistan’s decision to suspend bilateral trade has pulled the plug on this one-way trade. Neither Pakistan nor India is critically dependent on each other’s market, though the suspension of bilateral trade might, in the medium term, affect the consumer welfare by increasing prices of a few agricultural and other products.

As in absolute terms, India stands to lose a market of $2 billion compared to Pakistan’s loss of $0.38 billion. Pakistan’s exports of $383 million to India in 2018 constituted 1.6% of Pakistan’s global exports. Since Pakistan’s value-added products are systematically excluded through NTBs, Pakistan’s exports to India are concentrated in a few primary and intermediate products — dried dates ($92 million), cement ($63 million), sugar ($23 million), gypsum ($19 million), sesame seed ($15 million), leather ($14 million), steel scrap ($13 million), disodium carbonate ($12 million) and surgical instruments ($11 million).

There is little dependence of Pakistan’s exports on the Indian market for these products except for dried dates, though the reliance has been reduced through an aggressive market diversification strategy since February 2019.

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