Post Covid 19 Aviation Industry: A glimmer of hope and over coming fears

The history indicates a recovery from pandemics took about five years or more. Taking the same five years as bench mark, we should be preparing ourselves to survive till at least 2024 in any industry in general and in Aviation industry in particular. Aviation industry usually picks up very slowly after any known recession and Covid 19 created recession is going to be a little more tricky.

The growth in the industry is going to return very slowly with a lot changed once we resume back to pre-pandemic passenger loads for the airlines.

Certain things are going to be changed for the next generation of Pilots, Engineers and other support staff of the airlines.

Let’s discuss the major factor which is going to play the main role in future and the glimmer of hope that I am going to discuss will help many to pass thru this difficult time.

I am avoiding to write the specific numbers in my below analysis as predicting such figures will not be appropriate at this stage.

To begin with, the wide body aircraft are being phased out as we see that most of them have either been grounded for good or are in long term storages. The main survivor is going to be Boeing 777 series as Boeing 747 is almost gone and Airbus 380 has become a white elephant for the airlines. First A380s are already salvaged and last did roll out a month back from the factory.

More and more airlines are now opting for single aisle narrow body aircraft which means that we will need three flights to carry the load of one A 380. So the industry will need three times the more pilots and the supporting staff. At this stage we should be preparing our selves for an enormous air traffic and clogging airports with no parkings and extra ordinary activities on the ramps.

ICAO and regulators should be preparing for embracing very busy skies and the air traffic which has never been witnessed before. It may look a little funny at this stage but the world needs to get together and prepare for the future requirements where we will definitely need to fly the passenger aircraft in formations to reduce the clogging in the air and on the ground. Similarly, we need to plan for the additional runways and new airport facilities as once the time comes we will just be scrambling for no where.

Let’s be pro active and prepare ourselves for the future and for the future generations as like any other pandemic this one will also pass through, InshaAllah.


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