Rebuilding a nation, a lesson in history
A Pakistani dealer counts US dollars at a currency exchange shop in Karachi on November 30, 2018. - Pakistan's rupee plunged almost five percent to a record low on November 30 after what appeared to be a sixth devaluation by the central bank in the past year as the country struggles with an acute balance of payment crisis. (Photo by ASIF HASSAN / AFP)
Lebanon’s financial collapse since 2019 is a story of how a vision for rebuilding a nation once known as the Switzerland of the Middle East was derailed by corruption and mismanagement, as a sectarian elite borrowed, with few restraints.
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Downtown Beirut, leveled in the civil war, rose up with skyscrapers built by international architects and swanky shopping malls filled with designer boutiques that took payment in dollars.
But Lebanon had little else to show for a debt mountain equivalent to 150% of national output, one of the world’s highest burdens. Its electricity plants can’t keep the lights on and Lebanon’s only reliable export is its human capital.
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How Did It Borrow So Much?
Some economists have described Lebanon’s financial system as a nationally regulated Ponzi scheme, where new money is borrowed to pay existing creditors. It works until fresh money runs out. But how did the nation of about 6 million people get there?
After the civil war, Lebanon balanced its books with tourism receipts, foreign aid, earnings from its financial industry and the largesse of Gulf Arab states, which bankrolled the state by bolstering central bank reserves.
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What Can Pakistan Do To Survive The Oncoming Storm?
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- change political system to one party system like China
- shouldn’t run any enterprise
- Demonetization of currency
- enhance import duty to 500% on all imports and ban luxury imports
The key is mismanagement of economy, extreme debt and then sectarian conflict, which is eerily familiar with the ongoing situation in Pakistan. Otherwise Pakistan will become like Lebanon.
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