Shifting goalposts for releasing next tranche by IMF & Dar’s snub for abandoning long-range missiles

A very senior journalist, Mobashir Bukhari, called me yesterday, commenting on the delay of IMF tranche. He made an interesting point. He said, each time we solve the question paper, the syllabus changes. We need to analyze this viewpoint.

It is a reported fact that ‘lender’ [read IMF], changed its mind at least four times.

IMF, before rea­ching a staff-level agreement (SLA) has changed the interpretation of four actions asked of Pakistan.

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These four actions demanded as per revised interpretation are:

1] Increased interest rates by Pakistan’s Central Bank that is a correct reflection on increased inflation.

2] Assurances in writing for external financing gap from nations that are friendly.

3] Rs3.39 per unit financing cost surcharge on electricity to consumers to continue through the financial bill throughout the year, rejecting the federal government to do the same for a 4-month period only and,

4] Last but not the least, exchange rate outflow to address Afghanistan.

Shifting goalposts for releasing next tranche by IMF & Dar’s snub for abandoning long-range missiles

It is a fact that in spite of stating that the policy will be low-income friendly, this has not happened. The increase in GST is only one example.

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“It looks like each time the review is a new programme, which is very uncustomary with the IMF,” said Dar. [March 16, 2023]

The changes have created economic & administrative hurdles leading to delay in releasing funds to cash-strapped Pakistan.

Coming to the comment of Dar, he categorically stated no one has the right to tell us what range of missiles Pakistan can or cannot have. He did not name anyone. But obviously someone did. Who was it? 

On May 11 and 13, 1998, five underground nuclear tests were conducted by India. Pakistan retaliated with 5 tests on May 28, 1998, and yet another test on May 30. It’s being rumored in certain circles that back in 1998, when Pakistan did the tests, there were some back-of-the-scene efforts to ‘denuclearize’ Pakistan & Pakistan’s weak economic position can be manipulated by certain powers to target Pakistan’s nuclear programme.

The economic and political situation in Pakistan is fluid. Such commentaries can hurt Pakistan even more in creating further uncertainties.

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End Note:

“Policy making invariably involves taking measured risks in the face of uncertainty, for one has neither a prior template nor the luxury of indecision.”

― Raghuram G. Rajan, [I Do what I Do]

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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9 

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