United Nations Security Council Meeting on Kashmir and some Possible Future Scenarios

So the 15 member council met. All agreed that Kashmir “is not India’s internal matter”.

China supported by saying to solve Kashmir through UN resolutions, opposing any unilateral action, urging all sides to exercise restraint and stating that India’s actions have also violated China’s sovereignty and violated bilateral agreements.

Surprising indirect support from Russia. The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister, Dmitry Polyanskiy, tweeting that:

We are friends and good partners with both #India and #Pakistan and both peoples. We have no hidden agendas. So we will open-heartedly continue to engage with Islamabad and New Delhi in order to help both of them come to terms and have good neighbourly relations #Kashmir....... on the basis of Simla Agreement of 1972 and Lahore declaration of 1999, in accordance with *UN Charter, relevant UN resolutions and bilateral agreements between India and Pakistan.

Dmitry Polyanskiy, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister

So it seems Pakistan and the Kashmiris have won a small but very important moral and diplomatic first round.

Projecting forward one can look at a best case scenario vis a vis the UNSC in the shape of a SC Resolution stating that:

Kashmir is not an Indian internal matter. That both countries are urged to exercise restraint and not take any unilateral actions and solve the issue under bilateral agreements (Simla Agreement and Lahore Declaration) and relevant UN Resolutions.

Khatham Shud!

Pakistan will be happy that they’ve won a moral and diplomatic victory. That Kashmir has once again been internationalized and come alive.

Following the Israeli Model to the finest detail, India will completely ignore the above, insisting its an internal matter and at best a bilateral issue between them and Pakistan.

What they did was within their constitutional rights and that they will only talk to Pakistan, once it stops “promoting terror”. Basically saying we will never talk to Pakistan.

In summary India says.

Up yours, UN. Up yours, World. And up yours, Pakistan.

Let the world say what they want, we will continue doing what we want.

So where does it lead us?

Will India ever agree to negotiations over Kashmir?

My view is that in today’s world any country succumbs only if.

They are economically sanctioned by the USA and other major economies like the EU, China, Russia. Clearly not going to happen.

A country is diplomatically isolated like Apartheid period South Africa. Clearly not happening.

In Kashmir’s case the only way I see India coming to the negotiating table is if there’s sustained, prolonged, very serious and violent Internal resistance, both political and militant.

And only if this resistance dramatically affects major sectors of not only Indian Occupied Kashmir, but mainland India, bringing serious disruption to the day to day life of ordinary citizens, a breakdown of law and order, serious security issues, affecting economy, foreign investment, employment, tourism, sports etc.

This resistance could take the shape of a militant freedom movement, an inurgency, guerilla operations, political assassinations, kidnappings, destroying urban peace, attacking soft targets, tourists, hotels, shopping centers, government offices and buildings, all across India.

In addition serious political unrest in Kashmir and mainland India will add more pressure.

This may bring India to the negotiating table! But not Modi’s India and more on this later.

But a very tragic outcome and possible outcome of this Kashmiri freedom struggle will be very repressive and violent, clampdown and crackdown by Indian security forces, till it’ll spiral into an unending orgy of state terrorism, killing and violence, against the Kashmiris.

The impact on India’s already tanking economy, foreign investment and trade will be catastrophic and devastating.

But this will not bring Modi’s India to the negotiating table.

My considered view is that Modi, who clearly is a very unstable individual, with grandiose visions of being divinely inspired to impose Hindutva, will blame Pakistan for the violence, and like Israel, using security as an excuse, will launch a pre emptive strike against Pakistan.

This, in my opinion, will be a very foolhardy and risky Indian misadventure, because Pakistan is ready and India will get a very bloody nose. But we will also suffer in the process.

It’ll be a conventional conflict. But who knows what a demented mad Caligula Modi do and may resort to a nuclear strike!

On the other hand, the Kashmiris who after an initial upsurge in fighting for their freedom will ultimately be cowed down, as a result of massive brutalization and violation of human rights, violent repression, torture imprisonment and mass rape and killing.

And like Palestine, the world will look away and like Israel, India will convert Kashmir into the world’s largest Nazi style concentration camp!

Depending on the above, whether Kashmiris are able to sustain their freedom movement and inflict unacceptable damage on India or they are brutally suppressed and succumb, here are some possible future scenarios.

Most optimistic.

An independent Kashmir, comprising Valley and AJK.

Middle.

Self rule of Kashmir Valley. Free cross border movement between IOK and AJK. Co Governance by Pakistan and India. Much like the Musharraf option agreed with Manmohan Singh.

Semi Worst.

Reversal to 370 status quo.

Worst case.

Continuing violence. Repression like Gaza or West Bank. The world’s largest concentration camp. War with Pakistan.

Only the intensity and longevity of the Kashmiri freedom movement and its ability to inflict massive and unacceptable damage on India, will bring them to the negotiating table.

But only after Modi is no longer in power.

In my opinion, he has also sown the seeds of India's future disintegration, but not before wreaking untold havoc, violence and destruction on India, Kashmir and perhaps even, Pakistan.

Pakistan’s options are limited.

Continue to rally the world and prick their conscience.

Be ready to fight India, when attacked.

If the World, especially the USA, is sensible and wants to avoid a nuclear holocaust and a Kashmiri genocide by Modi, then they must step in to stop Modi’s mad slide into Armageddon!

 

Stay tuned to Baaghi TV for more updates.

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