What will a post-corona world look like?

The Corona pandemic has resulted in an enormous setback and disillusion all over the world. How much will get back to normal? What will normal really mean?

There are a number of possible futures, all dependent on how governments and society respond to coronavirus and its economic aftermath. Hopefully we will use this crisis to rebuild, produce something better and more humane. But we may slide into something worse.

Just as this disease has shattered lives, disrupted markets and exposed the competence (or lack thereof) of governments, it will lead to permanent shifts in political and economic power in ways that will become apparent only later.

COVID-19 will accelerate the shift in power and influence from West to East. South Korea and Singapore have responded best, and China has reacted well after its early mistakes. On the other hand, and in stark contrast, response in Europe and America has been slow and haphazard.

Most importantly, the United States will no longer be seen as an international leader because of its government’s narrow self-interest and bungling incompetence. Washington has failed the leadership test, and the world is worse off for it.

The pandemic is expected to create a world that is less open, less prosperous, and less free as millions of people are living in some form of quarantine or lockdown, people are developing and embracing new (or already existing) practices such as teleworking and online education. Some of these are only temporary and can be discarded once the crisis is over, others may last longer and become part of our everyday routines.

However, there are many examples of the power of the human spirit of doctors, nurses, political leaders, and ordinary citizens demonstrating resilience, effectiveness, and leadership. That provides hope that men and women around the world can survive and help others survive in response to this extraordinary challenge.

Once the Corona-crisis is over, the resulting deep social and economic wounds will take time to heal and, afterwards, the world probably looks a lot different from today’s. This does not necessarily mean that a full-blown paradigm shift will take place, but the personal suffering, months of societal disruption and a global economic crisis are likely to shake up geopolitical dynamics.

As a result, a post-corona world may be one in which globalization prevails (or even accelerates) or we may see (different forms of) de-globalization as multilateral institutions fall apart.