Who Will Be Iran’s Next President?

As Iran’s snap presidential election on June 28th approaches, the Guardian Council has approved six candidates: three hardliners, two pragmatic conservatives, and one reformist. The traditionalist vote is expected to be divided among the first five candidates, potentially giving the reformist a chance if voter turnout is high.

The leading candidate is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a regime insider with a strong background as a former Revolutionary Guards general, police chief, and mayor of Tehran. Currently the pragmatic conservative speaker of parliament and a relative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Qalibaf is a prominent figure within the regime.

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Another notable candidate is Saeed Jalili, a hardliner with close ties to Khamenei and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While Qalibaf is considered more moderate, Jalili’s hardline stance makes him a significant contender.

Most candidates share a hardline Islamic ideology aligned with Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, Massoud Pezeshkian, a member of parliament from Tabriz, stands out as a relative moderate. Pezeshkian, who is ethnically Azeri, could attract votes from those opposed to hardliners, particularly in the northeast where many Turkish-speaking Azeris reside. His appeal also lies in his background as a surgeon, politician, and advocate for regional autonomy, coupled with his Shia scholarship and reputation for integrity.

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Vali Nasr highlighted Pezeshkian’s unique profile in a recent tweet, noting his Azeri-Kurdish heritage, fluency in both languages, and his reformist stance. This positions Pezeshkian as an interesting wildcard in the election.

Despite the outcome, the overall direction of Iranian policy is expected to remain unchanged, as the Islamic Republic continues its established trajectory regardless of the presidential victor.

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The writer is a lawyer, academic, and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9

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