Harris, Trump remain tied heading into final stretch of presidential race

As the US presidential race enters its final stretch, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, remain essentially deadlocked, with recent national polls showing a highly competitive landscape as well as a slight shift toward the Republican side, according to most reports.

With Election Day less than two weeks away, both candidates are working hard to win over the few remaining undecided voters in the seven battleground states, where polls show an exceptionally close race.

But American-Muslims remain divided over whom to support even at this late stage.

In the past, American-Muslims were a solidly Democratic voting bloc, especially in the years following 9/11 and given Trump’s overtly anti-Muslim rhetoric. But they are very angry with the Biden administration – and, by extension, Kamala Harris – for its blind support for Israel. Now American-Muslims seem willing to overlook Trump’s history of closeness with Israel’s hard-right leaders. “If, and when, they say, when I’m president, the US will once again be stronger and closer [to Israel] than it ever was,” Trump said last week. “I will support Israel’s right to win its war.”

Yet national polls show Muslim-Americans slightly favouring the former president; others are increasingly vocal in support of the third outfit in the field — Green party’s Jill Stein, a socialist who has been sharply critical of US blind to Israel and the genocidal war against Gaza.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani-American Public Affairs Committee (PAKPAC USA) has already endorsed Donald Trump, the former president.

In the US, (A PAC refers to an organization that pools campaign contributions from members and donates those funds to support or oppose candidates, ballot initiatives, or legislation.)

This week, Ms. Harris and Trump employed distinct strategies to sway voters. Ms. Harris continued her media blitz with a one-on-one interview with NBC and an appearance at a CNN town hall, which received mixed reactions from Democrats afterward.

The Harris campaign focused its efforts this week on attacking Trump, with the help of two big stories in The Atlantic and The New York Times. In these articles, Trump’s former chief of staff, John Kelly, labeled his ex-boss a “fascist” and accused him of desiring generals like those of Adolf Hitler. But New York City’s Democratic Mayor Eric Adam disagreed with that description of Trump, a statement that was highlighted in Sunday’s newspapers.

Trump mostly avoided mainstream media this week, focusing instead on a Latino (Latin-Americans) roundtable in Florida and a town hall in Georgia to rally evangelical voters. He also appeared on several podcasts.

Here’s how the two candidates performed in major polls this week:

A recent poll by CNN/SSRS, conducted from October 20 to 23 among 1,704 likely voters, shows a deadlock, with both candidates tied at 47 percent. This even split underscores the continued divide within the electorate as both campaigns make their final appeals to sway undecided voters. The poll has a margin of sampling error of 3.1 percentage points.

The latest New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted October 20-23 with a sample of 2,516 likely voters, also reflects an evenly split race, with both candidates capturing 48 percent of the vote. This poll, considered the most accurate in the country, showed Ms. Harris with a slim lead in its last survey. The poll’s margin of sampling error is 2.2 percentage points.

A Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO from October 19 to 22 among 1,500 registered voters shows Trump with a slight national edge over Ms. Harris, leading 49 percent to 46 percent. This 3-point advantage for Trump indicates his growing momentum, especially among undecided voters in key battlegrounds. The poll has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

An Ipsos/Reuters poll conducted from October 16 to 21 among 3,307 likely voters shows Harris leading by 3 points, with 48 percent support compared to Trump’s 45 percent. Ms. Harris’s lead highlights her stability among core demographics, though Trump remains competitive. The poll’s margin of sampling error is 1.6 percentage points, making it one of the most precise measures among recent surveys.

A CNBC poll, conducted by Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies from October 15 to 19 among 1,000 registered voters, shows Trump leading by 2 points, with 48 percent support to Ms. Harris’s 46 percent. This slight lead for Trump suggests he is gaining ground as both campaigns intensify their outreach efforts. The margin of error for the poll is 3.1 percentage points.

The Suffolk/USA Today poll, conducted from October 14 to 18 with 1,000 likely voters, shows Ms. Harris holding a narrow 1-point lead, with 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 49 percent. The margin of sampling error for the poll is 3.1 percentage points.

Currently, the model gives Trump a 53.1 percent chance of winning, with an estimated 2-point Electoral College advantage favouring Republicans in 2024, according to Newsweek. This projection is based on state-by-state polling data, factoring in inherent uncertainties, it said.

This aligns with the RealClearPolitics model, which shows Trump leading by an average of 0.2 points across swing states and projected to win every battleground. If realized, this would give Trump a near-landslide of 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’s 227.