Islamabad: According to the latest IHME predictions, corona virus is likely to claim more than 40,000 lives in Pakistan by 1st October. According to reports, IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation), Washington University, in its first prediction for Pakistan, has said that COVID-19 will claim 42,188 (between 18,380 and 107,180) lives by 1st October.
IHME Doctor Ali Mikdad who is a senior faculty member and Chief Strategy Officer of Population Health at Washington University, says that Pakistan is in a sensitive situation. Brave attempts to control the virus, like wearing face-masks and maintaining social distancing are mandatory as nations open up again. If everyone wears a mask before leaving home, we can save 25,000 lives between now and 1st October. This is all about saving both lives and the economy.
According to forecasting, the spread of corona will continue to rise and there doesn’t seem to be any peak in the near future.
The daily deaths by 1st October are expected to have reached 1431 (between 346 and 4647). In Punjab the number of daily deaths are expected to reach 916 (between 155 to 3508) while in Sindh it is predicted at 254 (between 42 and 846).
According IHME predictive models, if all countries enforce the mandate for social distancing for 6 weeks, the number of deaths is expected to reach 8 people per million. There has not been a prediction made for Pakistan reaching this figure for 1st October.
The percentage of people who wear masks before leaving home is also an important point. If 95% Pakistanis follow this rule the number of deaths predicted will come down to 16,994.
These are the province-wise predictions for Pakistan:
- Azad Jammu and Kashmir: 861 (range between 39 and 5501)
- Balochistan: 2188 (range between 257 and 8434)
- Gilgit-Baltistan: 54 (range between 21 and 279)
- Islamabad Capital Territory: 262 (range between 181 and 408)
- Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: 4894 (range between 2272 and 10,835)
- Punjab: 24,830 (range between 7,999 and 78,361)
- Sindh: 9098 (range between 3352 and 24,684)
These predictions are based on the latest model of IHME and includes the figures of the health system, like hospital admission, ICU admission, the need for ventilators, deaths, and antibody formation. Other factors include estimates of testing per person, movement per person, mandate for social distancing, use of masks, rate of social distancing, and seasonal fluctuations.
New estimates of deaths and other information are available on https://covid19.healthdata.org
IHME wants to warmly acknowledge the efforts of all those people who helped them in drawing up the predictive models, which are as follows: ACAPS, American Hospital Association, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Oxford University, Bloomberg Philanthropies, Boston Children’s Hospital’s Healthmap, California Healthcare Foundation, Carnegie-Mellon University, Christopher Adolf and his partners from Washington University’s Political Science Department, Descartes Labs, Facebook Data for Good, Google Labs, John Stanton and Theresa Gillespie, Julie and Eric Nordstorm, Kaiser Family Foundation, Medtronic Foundation, Microsoft AI for Health, National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NIMHD) of National Institute of Health (NIH), National Science Foundation, World in Data, Premize, Comolo, Real-time Medical System, Redapt, SafeGraph, COVID Tracking Project, John Hopkins University, Kuwait Foundation for Advancement of Sciences (KFAS), New York Times, UNESCO, Maryland University, University of Miami Institute for Advanced Study of the Americas, Wellcome Trust, Health Organisation, and lastly ministries of health and health-related issues all over the world, sponsors and partners, and their tireless efforts to collect data.
About the IHME: The IHME is a self-sufficient research institution world health at the research of University of Washington School of Medicine which provides the strictest and possible to analyse predictions for the world’s most important health-related issues and discusses way to combat them.It is committed to transparency and provides its data the world over so that policy-makers have access to the data that helps them to improve the health situation and decide on the allocation of resources.
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