Impact of Syria and Saudi Arab reproachment

The reproachment between Syria and Saudi Arab is a notable win for Russia. It came on heels of the agreement between Saudi Arab and Iran brokered through China.

Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman policy has veered towards expanding the diplomatic base which was so far restricted to U.S, so far as super powers go. There is a dedicated effort to include both Russia & China in its ambit. The decision to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a clear move to step closer to Beijing.

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President Biden during his visit to Riyadh in 2022, conveyed his opinion to the Crown Prince to avoid moving close to Moscow and Riyadh.

Of course, Washington cannot be pleased about the above developments. The key question will be just how much leverage is U.S willing to use to throw a spanner in the works? On the flip side, Washington may see it as a positive development: to have Arab states on friendly footing with the U.S having also a firm foothold with Damascus. Given the backdrop of a contingent of U.S forces in Syria and ongoing clashes between militants supported by Syria and the Iran militants, it can certainly come in useful to open a path of communication with Asad’s regime. Bashar al-Assad’s regime is a reality!

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The question Riyadh must address is that though opening an embassy in Syria does not violate the US imposed Caesar Sanctions against Syria-how does Riyadh proceed from this point on to further the relationship with Damascus? It needs to carefully access the situation. For Washington taking it lying down can be difficult which will be viewed as giving up space to the increasing global influence of Russia and China. It may not place sanctions on U.S friendly Arab nations, however the chances of Washington doing the same on war-torn Syria cannot be ruled out.

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Riyadh’s decision on how to proceed will take into equation how its relationship with Iran develops and whether or not the ceasefire in Yemen continues. Both developments if continue to be positive will decrease dependence of Riyadh on Washington so far as US security guarantees are concerned.

As the world power dynamics undergo a change, Middle East is the bubbling cauldron that will establish new players in areas hitherto seen as being part of the U.S domain of influence.

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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_

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