By Major (r) Haroon Rasheed — Defense and Strategic Analyst
On 29 July 2025, India once again tested its Pralay missile, a short-range, high-precision ballistic missile capable of striking targets between 150 and 500 kilometers.
The test, conducted under the banner of operational readiness, is more than just a routine technical trial — it carries serious strategic implications for the South Asian region, especially for Pakistan.
This development signals a significant shift in India’s military posture, reinforcing its capability for quick, accurate, and conventional first-strike options under its evolving “Proactive Operations” or so-called Cold Start Doctrine. In the current regional climate, the timing and messaging of this test cannot be ignored.
Understanding Pralay: Tactical Edge or Strategic Signaling?
The Pralay missile is a solid-fueled, road-mobile, quasi-ballistic missile system designed to evade interception and strike with high accuracy. It can be launched quickly and can carry different types of conventional warheads. Its mobility and speed make it difficult to detect and neutralize in time.
India’s doctrine appears to be shifting from deterrence-based posture to proactive force projection. Pralay, in this context, acts as a battlefield force multiplier aimed at crippling enemy command and logistics structures in the early phases of conflict — without escalating to nuclear exchange.
Its deployment is likely to be focused on border regions with Pakistan and China, giving Indian field commanders the ability to initiate or respond with precision in limited conflict scenarios.
Implications for Regional Stability
The Pralay test has three key implications for the regional security landscape
1. Doctrinal Shift:
India is operationalizing its Cold Start Doctrine — previously denied officially — through tools like Pralay, which allows for limited, high-speed ground offensives supported by precision strikes.
2. Escalation Risks:
The line between conventional and nuclear conflict becomes dangerously thin. Any use of such missiles in the early stages of war could provoke a strong reaction from Pakistan, potentially escalating the situation uncontrollably.
3. Pressure on Pakistan’s Strategic Posture:
With India expanding its conventional strike envelope, Pakistan is compelled to maintain credible deterrence at all levels — including tactical nuclear deterrence.
Pakistan’s Answer: NASR and Beyond
In response to India’s doctrinal and technological advancements, Pakistan has already deployed the Hatf-IX NASR missile — a short-range tactical nuclear missile with a range of approximately 70 kilometers While Pralay is conventionally armed, NASR is nuclear-capable, specifically designed to neutralize Indian armor and advancing formations under Cold Start scenarios.
NASR’s key features:
Shoot-and-scoot mobility
Quick reaction time
Designed for battlefield-level deterrence
Integrated within Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence posture
However, Pakistan must now look beyond NASR, considering India’s focus on precision-guided, longer-range battlefield systems like Pralay.
Pakistan’s Possible Countermeasures
To maintain regional deterrence balance, Pakistan must
1. Strengthen Tactical Precision Strike Capabilities:
Develop or acquire conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles with ranges between 150-300 km, equipped with satellite guidance and maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRVs) for precision targeting.
2. Integrate Advanced Air and Missile Defense:
Enhance current air defense shields (such as LY-80 and HQ-9) and accelerate indigenous BMD systems, specifically to intercept fast, low-flying ballistic threats like Pralay.
3. Deploy EW and Anti-Missile Systems at Forward Positions:
Use electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and decoys to confuse and absorb missile targeting systems.
4. Counter-Force Deterrence Messaging:
Clearly communicate red lines to India — any precision strike on strategic or C2 nodes may invite unpredictable retaliation, including nuclear use if core thresholds are breached.
5. Strategic Partnerships and Technology Transfers:
Deepen defense ties with allies (such as China or Turkey) to develop counter-Pralay systems, especially focusing on mobility, survivability, and precision retaliation.
Conclusion
A New Tactical Era in South Asia
India’s Pralay test is not an isolated event — it is a signal of a transitional shift in regional warfare concepts. Precision, speed, and first-strike capabilities are being prioritized over traditional deterrence models. For Pakistan, the strategic challenge is twofold: maintain deterrence credibility while modernizing its conventional response matrix.
The subcontinent is inching toward a tactically volatile battlefield environment, where speed and precision could determine the outcome of conflicts even before they fully escalate. As a nuclear-armed nation with a clear defensive doctrine, Pakistan must respond prudently but firmly — through both technological countermeasures and strategic signaling — to ensure that stability is preserved and miscalculations are avoided.
Major (r) Haroon Rasheed is a defense and strategic analyst, member of REC ABAD, and former Joint Secretary PTI Karachi Division. He regularly writes on regional security, defense doctrines, and strategic policy development.
Stay tuned to Baaghi TV for more. Download our app for the latest news, updates & interesting content!
