Political uncertainty: What to expect if Kim Jong-Un dies?
HANOI, VIETNAM - MARCH 02: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a wreath laying ceremony at the Ho Chi Minh mausoleum on March 2, 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Photo by Dien Bien / Getty Images.
The diminutive dictator’s health has deteriorated in recent months due to heavy smoking, obesity and overwork, confirmed reports.
North Korea has imposed even tighter restrictions following the outbreak of the global pandemic – COVID-19, although it claims to have no cases. Thereby, reports of the dictator’s death or incapacitation may likely result in a tumultuous power struggle as Kim has not named any successor. Among those who are seen as likely candidates for the top leadership position are Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-Jong.
Kim Yo-Jong was named as an alternate member of the politburo at the April 11 meeting where Kim was last seen in public, and has represented the North Korean government in dealings with the South. However, as North Korea stalls for time, the world speculates his whereabouts.
All eyes on ‘new way’ in Kim Jong Un’s New Year speech
According to reports, the North Korean government is feeling pressured to provide evidence that Kim is alive. In a letter published on the 27th of April by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), addressed to South African President Cyril Ramaphosa by the Korean dictator, greetings were exchanged in honor of South Africa’s Freedom Day. Although such gestures are merely a ‘diplomatic nicety’, it is odd given the circumstances since it is usually Choe Ryong Hae believed to be North Korea’s No. 2 who usually sends these letters.
Moreover, the President of the United States, Donald Trump, continues to send his well wishes for the Korean leader. In a White House briefing he reportedly said, “I hope he’s fine. I do know how he’s doing relatively speaking. We will see—you’ll probably be hearing in the not too distant future”. Meanwhile, Minister for Unification, Kim Yeon Chul maintains that the North Korean leader is in no danger, stating that South Korea has “enough intelligence” to say with certainty that “there are no unusual developments”.
North Korea’s Kim Jong is in ‘grave danger’, claims US
North Korean experts have cautioned that hard facts about Kim’s condition are elusive but said his unprecedented absence from major celebrations for his grandfather’s birthday last week signals that something may have gone awry. Kim who is a third-generation hereditary leader to rule North Korea with an iron fist, had come into power after his father Kim Jong Il died in 2011 from a heart attack.
According to Oriana Skyler Mastro of Foreign Policy, the ongoing situation can serve as a ‘reality check’ for the North Korean state pertaining to their political system. For one, North Korea will face great difficulty in transitioning from their current regimen. Following the passing of their leader, the state would likely experience a period of ‘serious instability’ pertaining to the transitioning of power. Secondly, if the two Korean states ever manage to reconcile, it is the defectors, such as Thae Yong-ho will be most likely to play their roles in the ‘rapprochement process’ to decide the future of the Korean peninsula.
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Mastro adds, that no family has been able to maintain their dictatorship for a third time since the Second World War. Experts believe that if things are to fall through for North Korea, it is believed that defectors such as Thae Yong-ho will be most likely to play their roles in the ‘rapprochement process’.
Mastro further cites five things that may happen if Kim Jong Un is to die:
- Firstly, the regime will collapse instantly.
- Secondly, analysts are of the opinion that the United States under leadership of Trump is prepared for the downfall of the North Korean state.
- Thirdly, North Korea would have to secure its nukes with immediacy if it hopes to safeguard its interests against its diplomatic rivals.
- Fourthly, in the current circumstances, China would step in to lead the nation pertaining to military and defense which will most probably be disregarded by the United States.
- Lastly, with the collapse of the Kim-regime, United States would loose its stronghold in the Asian content and suffer a major setback.
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