What really happened to Raisi’s helicopter
Paul Beaver, an aviation expert and former helicopter pilot, suggested that adverse weather conditions, including cloud cover, fog, mist, and low temperatures, were likely factors in the crash of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s helicopter. Despite these insights, Iranian authorities have not officially determined the cause of the incident.
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Forbes reported that while the severe weather likely played a significant role in the crash that claimed the lives of President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the advanced age of the helicopter must also be considered. The Bell 212, a durable and venerable aircraft, was likely 40-50 years old, acquired during the era of the last shah before the 1979 revolution when U.S.-Iran relations were still positive. Concerns about the aging helicopters used for Raisi’s frequent travels were highlighted in a leaked classified 2023 letter to First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber. This letter underscored Iran’s need for two Mi-17A2 helicopters from Russia at an estimated cost of $32 million, emphasizing the high frequency of Raisi’s helicopter flights.
Since assuming office, Raisi has strengthened Iran’s ties with China, including a visit to Beijing in February 2023. Known for his hardline stance and viewed as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Raisi’s death has significant political implications. The crash also claimed the life of Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, a key figure in Lebanon who frequently met with Hezbollah and Hamas officials, especially during conflicts like Israel’s war on Gaza.
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This tragedy occurs amid escalating dissent in Iran over various political, social, and economic issues. The Iranian government faces mounting international pressure regarding its controversial nuclear program and increasing military cooperation with Russia during the Ukraine conflict. The helicopter wreckage, which was completely burned, suggests slim chances of survival. Iranian authorities reported that some bodies were burned beyond recognition, complicating identification efforts at the crash site.
In the wake of Raisi’s death, Iran’s relationships with Russia and China are expected to deepen further, and the country is likely to maintain its hardline policies towards the United States. This incident underscores the intricate web of geopolitical dynamics involving Iran, highlighting its alliances and internal challenges.
The more pragmatic path toward a peaceful world.
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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9
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Good analysis!!