Why Nagorno-Karabakh clash could lead to global conflict?

Rise in hostilities across Azerbaijan and Armenia has forced a reaction from the international community, caused by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in the Southern Caucasus.

According to reports of Baaghi TV, the fighting which broke out afresh on Sunday with Armenian forces bombing a military base in Azerbaijan’s city of Ganja, has led to Russia seeking ceasefire to ensure regional stability.

It is to be noted that the former Soviet Union territories have since the renewal of hostilities, has involved heavy artillery, tanks, missiles and even drones. According to reports of Baaghi TV, Armenian separatist forces recently used a Shilka to shoot down Azerbaijan’s MiG-25. So far, Azerbaijan has not reported any military casualties.

Ceasefire efforts fail between Armenia and Azerbaijan

According to reports, the clashes have been linked to the Azerbaijan’s attempts to recapture and unite the disputed territory, for which Turkey is actively providing full support. It is to be noted that Nagorno-Karabakh was separated from Azerbaijan and declared independent by Armenia in the early 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. At the time, hundreds of thousands of people had been displaced and almost 30,000 people had been confirmed dead by the authorities.

Nagorno-Karabakh Clash & the Estimated Dangers?

Previously also, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces have clashed for a number of days, with both staking claim on the disputed territory while Azerbaijan has the legal right to occupation as Nagorno-Karabakh is an internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan. According to reports, the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been hit by missiles and bombs, targeting the civilian population since the 1990s, as both sides blame the other amidst the heightened conflict.

As reported earlier by Baaghi TV, any attempts to reach ceasefire negotiations have failed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. It should be noted that Pakistan’s Foreign Office released a statement that Pakistan is deeply concerned about the deteriorating security situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and that the Armenian army’s shelling of Azerbaijan’s civilian population is reprehensible and regrettable.

Foreign Office Spokesman Zahid Hafeez said that Pakistan supports Azerbaijan’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh, which is in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions thereby, Armenia must suspend operations to avoid threats.

Azerbaijan-Armenia: Armenian Leader seeks US intervention

The recent ceasefire negotiations were rejected by Azerbaijan which has support from Turkey. The danger of global conflict is also heightened as protracted clashes may lead to involvement of external forces, resulting in a regional war.

Why is Turkey Involved?

Turkey has always provided support to Azerbaijan, which is its geo-strategic partner. Moreover, since the fighting started on Sunday, Turkey has provided unconditional support to Azerbaijan by providing military capability to Azerbaijan against Armenia. According to reports, Turkey has even provided Azerbaijan with its high regarded drone technology.

Moreover, it is believed that Turkey has deployed its pro-Ankara Syrian fighters as support for Azerbaijan’s forces. “The new aspect is that there is military involvement by Turkey which risks fueling the internationalisation of the conflict,” said French Foreign Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, has said that the international community should support Azerbaijan because they are on the right side while Armenia are the “occupier”.

How is Russia Involved?

As reported earlier by Baaghi TV, Russian administration has made multiple attempts to seek ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia with President Putin describing it as a need for secure regional stability. However, Russia plays a vital role in the conflict, primarily, through geographical ties to both as former Soviet Union states. Russia provides weapons to both sides.

Turkish foreign minister to visit Azerbaijan on Tuesday: Ministry

It is believed by experts that a longer conflict could also lead to an increase in Turkey’s support which would threaten Russia’s dominance in the region.

It is pertinent to note that, apart from Turkey, no other country has offered support with global powers asking for restraint. According to reports, Iran, Gerogia and Qatar are among the few ready to mediate for regional prosperity while, Russia is seeking ceasefire and Armenia hopes for US intervention in the matter.

According to reports of Baaghi TV, former Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Jeyhun Bayramov, is set to visit Geneva to meet with leaders of the Organization jointly chaired by diplomats from Russia, France and the United States. It is pertinent to note that the renewed hostilities come at a period of international distraction due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming US elections which may divert attention from the cause of Azerbaijan, if future ceasefire negotiations are agreed upon.

Armenia ready for ‘mutual concessions’ with Azerbaijan on Karabakh: PM

It is pertinent to note that if the conflict lasts longer, there may be a shift in political dynamics with Turkey and Russia having to make significant strategic decisions.