By Major (R) Haroon Rasheed, Defense and Strategic Analyst & Member REC ABAD
August 9, 2025: For nearly two decades, India carefully cultivated its image as the darling of Western capitals. Washington, London, Paris, Berlin—and even Moscow—viewed New Delhi as a strategic counterweight to the rise of China. America, in particular, treated India like a “baby sugar” project, investing political capital, military cooperation, and billions in trade incentives in the hope that one day India would stand as both a regional stabilizer and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).
The rationale was clear: bolster India’s capabilities, keep Beijing’s expansion in check, and, in return, secure a loyal democratic ally in Asia. But recent events have revealed the fragility of that dream, exposing India’s military, diplomatic, and economic vulnerabilities for the world to see.
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From Operation Sindoor to Operation Bunyanoon Marsoos
The curtain began to lift during Operation Sindoor and its retaliatory Operation Bunyanoon Marsoos. These high-stakes military engagements shattered the carefully constructed myth of India’s invincibility. In the eyes of military observers worldwide, India’s much-touted capabilities faltered under real operational stress.
Pakistan, by contrast, demonstrated strategic acumen, military precision, and an ability to calibrate its response—earning global attention. For Washington, the lesson was stark: the partner they had nurtured to be the “bulwark” against China had been exposed, while Pakistan had quietly reminded the world that it remained a formidable and agile regional player.
Pakistan’s Strategic Pivot
Islamabad seized the moment. Playing its cards with calculated finesse, Pakistan managed to position itself as:
- The “blue-eyed” partner for America—restoring confidence in its strategic role.
- An “iron friend” of China—cementing ties with Beijing at a time when China is reasserting its global influence.
- A reliable interlocutor for Russia, Iran, and regional players—winning respect through careful diplomacy.
- A renewed partner for Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka—states that have increasingly shown diplomatic leanings towards Islamabad’s vision of regional stability.
The results are visible. Field Marshal General Asim Munir’s invitations to high-level U.S. engagements, including a special lunch with President Trump and the Centcom command change ceremony, underscore the shift. China, breaking precedent, invited the Pakistani army chief for an unprecedented meeting with its foreign minister—marking the first time in history a non-political army leader received such treatment from Beijing’s civilian leadership.
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Economic Shock: Trump’s Tariffs and India’s $50 Billion Blow
The final blow in this unfolding chapter came not from the battlefield but from the trading floor. In early August 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian exports. The move was swift, targeted, and devastating:
- Indian stock markets lost approximately US $50 billion in value in just one day.
- Major American brands, including retail giants like Target and Amazon, canceled or froze Indian export orders, sending shockwaves through India’s manufacturing sector.
- Investor confidence plummeted, and whispers about India’s overexposed, export-reliant economy began circulating in financial hubs from New York to Frankfurt.
For a nation that had prided itself on becoming the “next China” in global supply chains, the optics could not have been worse.
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The Geopolitical Shift
While India faces this economic and strategic turbulence, Pakistan’s stock is rising in multiple capitals:
- In Washington, decision-makers increasingly view Islamabad as a more reliable partner in balancing China without triggering uncontrollable escalation.
- In Beijing, Pakistan is seen not just as a military ally but also as a diplomatic bridge in South and Central Asia.
- In Moscow and Tehran, Pakistan’s deft navigation of regional security challenges has earned new respect.
This repositioning has come at India’s expense, with its once-promised UNSC permanent seat looking ever more like a mirage.
Conclusion: The Beginning of the Fall
India’s decline is not the result of a single event but a convergence of miscalculations: overestimating its military readiness, underestimating Pakistan’s strategic dexterity, and overreliance on Western economic goodwill. The tariff shock from Washington is a wake-up call that the same patrons who lifted New Delhi can just as quickly undercut it.
For Pakistan, this moment is both a vindication and an opportunity—to solidify its alliances, expand its influence, and ensure that when history writes the story of South Asia in the 21st century, it records that Islamabad, not New Delhi, set the strategic tempo.
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Major (R) Haroon Rasheed is a defense and strategic analyst specializing in South Asian military dynamics, deterrence strategy, and defense modernization. He is a member of the Research and Evaluation Cell for Advancing Basic Amenities and Development and member REC ABAD.
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