In their forecast of the upcoming US elections, The Economist, has analyzed that chances of electoral candidate Joe Biden coming into office are far more likely than President Trump’s return.
According to reports, The Economist has conducted a poll on the US election, according to which it is very likely that Trump will be defeated by Joe Biden.
According to The Economist, their model is updated daily and combines state and national elections with economic indicators to predict a number of outcomes. At midpoint on election day, each party’s electoral college vote is estimated.
According to The Economist, their model works for elections, each time there is a difference in turnout, changes in turnout or the impact of the political environment and the campaign. The slides below predict the outcome of each election vote.
Chances of winning in every state?
According to The Economist, their model combines national forecasting with political and economic factors at the pool and state levels. They keep in mind that this is the possibility of walking together. If Donald Trump wins Minnesota, he will probably win Wisconsin as well.
We use two angles to measure the importance of states. One is the “possibility of key points”: the possibility that a state will cast a 270th decisive vote for the winner. The other is that any voter in any state will cast a decisive ballot to win the next president.
Popular voting every day:
According to The Economist, the model first averages polls, correcting tendencies to support a party. This average is then linked to their forecast based on non-polling data.
How states work together?
According to The Economist, their model also mimics what would happen if there was a race, or if there was prejudice to the polls, and if there was competition in similar states. They calculate the similarities between states by comparing their demographic and political profiles, such as the proportion of white voters living there, how religious they are and how urban or rural they are in the state.
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