COVID-19: Seasonal viruses and coronavirus could leave NHS ‘unable to cope’ this winter, scientists warn

July 15, 2021: According to a report, more than 60,000 people could die from the flu this winter and the combination of seasonal viruses and CoVID-19 may leave the NHS “unresponsive.”

The stern warning came from scientists who say the flu season could be particularly deadly, but increased flu job programs and rapid flu tests could help reduce the risks.

The CoVID-19 restrictions mean that many respiratory viruses could not spread normally last winter, which is why some virologists are concerned that seasonal respiratory illnesses compromise population immunity.

The virus will spread again as people come together socially at greater frequencies. A new report from the Academy of Medical Sciences states that flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) hospital admissions and deaths could occur twice what they would be in a “normal” year and could coincide to an increase in COVID-19 infections.

Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the Expert Advisory Group which wrote the report, said: “There are four main challenges: firstly a surge in respiratory viruses could cause wide-spread ill health and put pressure on the NHS.

“Secondly, we’re dealing with a third wave of COVID-19 and multiple outbreaks and the NHS has got to catch up with the backlog that it has accumulated over the last 15 months or so, and that’s going to be a real challenge.

“Third, the NHS is already under pressure, so it is unlikely that it will be able to meet these winter challenges. “Ultimately, the worst physical and mental health problems in the UK population due to the pandemic.”

He added: “The society as a whole has learned over the last 15 months that it is unacceptable that (we have) all these respiratory viruses start to wash out the virus and close our National Health Service. “If there are things we should do to prevent transmission, we should do it. Even if it means wearing masks and respecting personal space. “We are really capable of changing the way we operate as a society to stop the annual constant pressure on health services from all these viruses, and that means just a change in behavior.”

And the current wave of infections could make it difficult for the NHS to catch up with the care backblog with more than half a million people are on the waiting list in England.

The report also highlights other issues that health services are facing in the winter, including staff shortages and bed capacity. On top of that, people who skip seeking help for illness may also see an increase in help needed this winter for conditions such as asthma, heart attack and stroke. He also called for an extension of the COVID-19 test, which included flu and RSV tests – for example if GPs could immediately confirm whether a patient had the flu. Prescribe antiviral drugs as soon as possible, which means the person will have less disease, and less burden on the NHS.

Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences and Expert Advisory Group member, added: “We’re not saying we’re about to have the worst winter ever, we’re saying we have got a bunch of uncertain things that could hit us in winter that we need to think about mitigating now.”

She added: “I hope we will take forward some of these behavioural changes as a society. When you’re sick, stay out of the way because that’s actually when you’re most infectious, get your test – if you have got COVID you need to continue with that careful self isolation.”

The report’s authors think the flu season could come earlier than usual because of the lack of immunity but say this could actually be beneficial as there is more pressure on the NHS further into the winter.

Sir Patrick Vallance commissioned the report to examine the challenges facing the NHS this winter.

In addition to a deadly winter flu surge the study warned the health service is already under pressure and will struggle to cope with these additional winter challenges as it faced a shortage of beds and trained staff. But the reports authors stressed the predictions are based on a worst case scenario with no interventions.

A faster vaccine rollout, the autumn booster campaign and increased testing capacity for COVID and flu will help significantly in reducing the impact of these extra pressures on the NHS.

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