India’s decision to ban the export of non-white basmati rice could potentially lead to a global food crisis. The ban was implemented to mitigate the increase in domestic rice prices caused by heavy rains damaging crops and raising production costs already up by 11% in the past year. This move will reduce approximately one-quarter of rice exports from India, which typically accounts for 40% of global cereal trade.
The main buyers of Indian rice are Nigeria, China, and the Philippines, while other countries rely on Indian rice imports to supplement their domestic production when needed. With the ban in effect, grain prices could surge by up to 15%, according to experts’ analysis.
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The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the new crop will not be available for another three months. Floods in Pakistan, another major rice exporter, and monsoon rains in India pose additional challenges to rice production. India, as the world’s second-largest rice producer, fears that erratic monsoons might negatively affect the rice paddy crops, which will be ready for harvesting in September.
Moreover, importers are already facing higher costs due to currency devaluation. The ban on Indian rice exports adds further pressure on supplier nations to fulfill their demand for rice during this critical period.
The timing of the ban is particularly concerning as India is preparing for a series of key state elections in the coming months and general elections next year. The Indian government, led by Modi, is eager to control food inflation during this politically sensitive time.
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Furthermore, the ban coincides with the Black Sea initiative not being renewed & wheat supplies being impacted, India’s decision to halt rice exports is expected to further strain the global grains supply.
However, India has been strategic in implementing the ban, as it has excluded certain varieties of rice exported to several African countries and one variety predominantly exported to Bangladesh. This move aims to avoid any negative diplomatic repercussions between India and other African nations with whom India is actively trying to build positive relationships.
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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9
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