Several areas sealed in Islamabad after rapid spread of COVID-19
ISLAMABAD: The rapid spread of corona, the decision to seal several areas of Islamabad, echoes of more stringent decisions, according to reports, after the discovery of 200 cases of coronavirus in two sectors of the capital, it was decided to seal them.
According to sources, it has been decided to seal the Corona outbreak in G9-2, G9 and G9 Four. Deputy Commissioner Islamabad gave people of both the sectors 24 hours to buy goods. The sealing order in both the areas will be implemented from Saturday. In the meantime, there will be a respite for the people.
سیکٹر جی نائن ٹو،تھری اور کراچی کمپنی کو مکمل طور پر سیل کیا جارہا ہے۔سیل کرنے سے قبل اس سیکٹر کی عوام سے اپیل ہے کہ ضروری اقدامات مکمل کر لیں۔ضلعی انتظامیہ سیکٹر جی نائن کے شہریوں کو کسی بھی مشکل میں ضلعی انتظامیہ کی معاونت حاصل ہو گی۔ نوٹیفیکیشن👇👇 pic.twitter.com/uGrmDnNZJY
— Office of Deputy Commissioner Islamabad (@dcislamabad) June 11, 2020
According to the Deputy Commissioner, Corona was also spreading in Ghauri Town, IT-1, Lohi Bhair, G-8 and I-8. An administrative order is being issued to seal Karachi Company, G-9-2 and G-9-3. He said that the people of Karachi Company, G9-2 and 3 should take their rations and on Saturday both the areas would be completely sealed. Can’t take any more risks in these areas. Army, Rangers and police will be deployed in the sealed areas.
People say that the COVID death rate is 0.40% ! This was circulated in several news channels also !
Me Thinks the death rate is beyond 10%,on aggregate count,and for some nations it is way beyond.
As per – https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries = there are 7.5 million cases and 420000 dead.Simple numerics place it at proximating 6%.
Wrong me says ! dindooohindoo
India,Brazil,Russia have seen a sharp rise in cases,in the last 30 days.40% of their cases came in the last 30 days,and for India,it will worsen exponentially.If you see the kill data of the RIB in the BRICS – it has increased sharply,in the last 30 days (which proves my thesis)
People dying today,were in the quasi morgue (hospitals) 30-60 days ago.Let us take it,at 30 days.
So we rewind to 30 days ago,and exclude the jump in RIB of BRICS,in the last 30 days. So we have say 4.5 million cases and the kill quant is 420,000
Rate proximates 10% ! But that is also wrong,as the infected are NOT solely on RTPCR mode.Many nations cannot afford it and are doing antibody tests.An antibody positive may be RTPCR negative,and the vice versa is less likely. If you exclude these specimens from the infected tally,the % rises further.
Also have to exclude the recovered cases – as those with immunity will recover in 30 days – AS THE VIRUS was DESIGNED THAT WAY.Unlike HIV and Cancer – where patients are NOT likely to recover- on a generic mode.But those who recover from COVID -WILL (in part) come back again,and then die.That will double count the infected cases.Hence,we exclude the recovered cases (which are 4 million,as per site stated above).
These Johnnies who recouped,may have been infected,say 15 days ago – and if you rewind to 15 days ago,and deduct the spike in the RIBs of the BRICS – you will have an infected base of,say 6 million.If you remove the recovered (4 million),and then ratio it,to the dead of 420000 – then you have a
kill ratio of 21% !
Cannot compare the dead to the entire population – as of this instant – as it would include billions of aged,morbid and asymptomatics – who will get infected very soon.
If we take a 1 year horizon – then post the 1 year – you could take the global population – as that by that time,the virus would have had enough time,to spread,evolve and mutate (across the latitudes and seasons).At that stage,a ratio w.r.t the population,would be a meaningful statistic – to benchmark intra and inter se,with other diseases.By that time the death rate will mature and the complete breakdown of the health imfrastructure will be apparent (to explain the future geometric rise)