Social tipping points: slouching toward climate salvation

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Paris, March 2 (AFP/APP):The world appears to have finally woken up to the existential threat of global warming, and the drive to fix the problem is accelerating across the board.
The planet’s biggest carbon polluters — China, US, EU — vow carbon neutrality by mid-century; solar and wind power continued to surge even as global GDP shrank five percent last year; two-thirds of humanity see a “climate emergency”; a top-five automaker says it will only make zero-emissions vehicles after 2035; major investors recoil from coal, while fossil fuels companies shrivel in value.
Climate action cheerleaders are past masters at stringing together whatever signs of progress are at hand to conjure a glass half full, so good news laundry lists must be viewed skeptically.
There are arguably just as many reasons for pessimism.
Last week UN chief Antonio Guterres noted that — net-zero promises notwithstanding — “governments are nowhere close to the level of ambition needed to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius and meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.”
The 2015 treaty calls for capping global warming at “well below” 2C compared to preindustrial levels, and the world is currently on track for double that.
On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency reported that global CO2 emissions have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and then some.
But in all sectors — energy, industry, geopolitics, finance, public opinion — a flurry of activity has experts wondering whether the world is, at long last, turning the corner on climate.
“Is the pendulum swinging hard in the right direction? Absolutely,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at New York University.
“In the US, it’s Washington, it’s Detroit, it’s Silicon Valley, it’s Wall Street,” he added. “They didn’t wait for one another, it is all happening at the same time.”
The term for this sunny scenario is “social tipping point”, defined as a threshold leading irreversibly to a new state or paradigm, whether it be a shift to meat-free diets or — the ultimate goal — a global carbon-neutral economy.
Or electric vehicles.
A decade ago, EVs barely registered in terms of market share, and a rapid phase out of the internal combustion engine seemed chimerical. Today, the EV revolution is well underway and, by most accounts, unstoppable.

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