STORM IN THE TEA CUP

As we raise domestic crescendo over Kashmir, abrogation of Article 370 and 35-A, we appear to be boxing way above our weight. India undertook the measures in a very calculated manner, it had taken stock of Pakistan’s entire position/standing, its own stature and clout. India knows that after China (which is being hounded by USA, is not in a position to stick its neck out) India is only vibrant market for investors, its own stakes internal/overseas are projected as follows:
– 100 billion $ in FDI this year inside India
– 75 billion $ by KSA inside India
– India’s 11 billion $ order for Rafaele
– Another order of USD 8 Billion for more Rafaele on the table
– India studying to buy three nuclear submarines from France
– In talks with Russia for supply of two more Aircraft carriers
– Twitter, Facebook, Google, Microsoft operating from India
– Many more such ventures of Software developers and hardware developers operating from India
– All major auto manufacturers operating in India
AND SO ON SO FORTH, India is effectively having close to 800 billion USD invested by multi nationals.

Notwithstanding many internal problems within India and extremist record/policies of BJP, no country is willing to openly criticize India. All we have seen is lip service for example,
– UN: decrease tension
– Europe: Talk to each other
– USA: Situation in Kashmir is bad
– Muslim and Third World countries: Mild criticism

Global environment are also conducive as every important country is looking in a different direction, for example,
– USA: Trade war with China, Iran affairs and Afghanistan situation
– UK: Brexit
– EU: Brexit and Iran
– China: Hongkong and South China Sea affairs
– Russia: Syria, Turkey, Kurdistan and Iran affairs
– Arabs: Yemen, Iran and Syria
– Rest of the World: Not too interested in India/Pak tension

India continues to project that everything is okay and situation in J&K under control, surprisingly (the world knowing the atrocities of authorities and criminal actions of its security forces) it has not disturbed international conscience a wee bit ie more than a whimper. Its internal dissension is also meaningless as enough consensus is available on absorbing J&K and abrogation of special powers

Putting ourselves in Indian shoes, situation is conducive for what ever we are doing and that with passage of time world will get busy and again put Kashmir in remote policy mechanism. Pakistan’s hue and cry will not register any meaningful support, in fact Pakistan will remain busy mending its poor economic situation. We will retain advantage of conducting False Flag Operations and put Pakistan under sustained pressure through use of diplomatic and economic clout

Pakistan is currently in a state of double jeopardy, near economic collapse and Kashmir. Both cannot be ignored and put on back-burner. What is govt doing currently:
– Media is cooperating and bashing India and exposing Indian atrocities
– Govt is contacting heads of States and UNSC
– Within country steps are being taken to express solidarity with Kashmiris
– Foreign Ministry within its capabilities is using all available channels to project Indian wrong doing
– COAS & ISPR are doing their best through tweets, visits and using clout to elicit support
– Indian flag and Modi’s effigy burning is being done
– PM Imran Khan will address UNGA in Sep and forcefully raise the ISSUE (to fall on important deaf ears)
– Many other soft actions are being undertaken.

Million dollar question with its shades is:
– Will these actions shake World conscience?
– Will it create enough support within Indian polity to reconsider its action of 5 Aug?
OBVIOUS ANSWER IS A BLUNT NO
Then whatever Pakistan is doing is “MERELY A STORM IN THE TEA CUP”.
Is this good enough?
Isn’t a great likelihood of the ISSUE becoming dead, once and for all?
Will Pakistan not be subjected to pressure to “move on”?
WHAT MUST BE DONE?
– Soft measures to continue to keep the ISSUE at least simmering
– Hard measures such as denying over flights, blocking transit trade, reducing diplomatic relations and any such like measures to be undertaken
NOW THE REALITY CHECK:
– This ISSUE will never be solved without war
– Govt to undertake measures to tell the world that country is preparing and ready to go to war at date and place of its own choosing
– Armed Forces to undertake war games to project targeting of India’s business hubs to cripple its economy (multi nationals are very vary of war and will never return to India)
– All steps that takes to keep Kashmiri (all types of) resistance alive be taken
– Pakistan must prepare for a final round with India ie The War

GNN

This article is written by General (Retd) Nusrat Naeem.

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