Taliban’s growing influence in Afghanistan
According to the Qatar agreement, US forces have begun withdrawing from Afghanistan. All the capitals of the world are showing interest in this regard. Analysts have repeatedly said that keeping the situation in Afghanistan peaceful and normal after the withdrawal of US troops will be a difficult task.
The Taliban’s position across Afghanistan is being transformed. After the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan, the future of the country is being questioned internationally, whether the Afghan Taliban is going to re-occupy and whether the situation of the 90s is going to re-emerge there.
It is to be noted that the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan is scheduled to be completed in September, but even before that, it is being seen that government forces in the Afghan army and police uniforms in different provinces have surrendered to Taliban commanders and pledged allegiance to them. Every other day, there are reports of the Afghan Taliban regaining control of the various provinces of Afghanistan.
The control of the Afghan government is weakening day by day. International observers have consistently said that without the US military presence, Afghanistan’s civilian government would not be strong enough to maintain its writ in all provinces.
In these circumstances, various questions are arising in the minds of the Afghan people and the question is whether Afghanistan will once again fall victim to civil war? Will the presence of US forces in Afghanistan stop the process of partial development that has been going on for twenty years? Will the civil war once again force large numbers of civilians to flee Afghanistan? And if there is a wave of political instability in Afghanistan, what will be the impact on Pakistan? The question still remains to be answered as to who will occupy the centers of power and authority. Will the Taliban and the Afghan government resolve issues amicably?
It should be noted that the US failed to defeat the Taliban in the war to occupy Afghanistan in 2001. The US and the Afghan Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar in February 2020 and decided to take steps to implement it. It was done and all the details were fixed. On the one hand, negotiations between the US and the Afghan Taliban were ongoing, but on the other hand, the Taliban also engaged in a new alignment. This was reflected in the negotiations between the various factions of the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). NATO forces have completely evacuated the largest Bagram airbase in Afghanistan.
The United States has already withdrawn its military equipment from Afghanistan via 300C-17 transport aircraft. In May 2021, the United States also completed its withdrawal from Kandahar Airfield in southern Afghanistan, the second-largest foreign military base. The US military is not carrying supplies, it has been destroyed to save from the Taliban.
The United States launched the war in Afghanistan in response to September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center in New York. This war will turn 20 in October this year. All US troops will leave Afghanistan on September 11 this year, before the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
During his current visit to the United States, President Ashraf Ghani once again tried his best to prevent the withdrawal of coalition forces, but to no avail. The Taliban reacted strongly, this raises concerns that if Turkey and the United States remain stationed at Kabul airport in the center of Kabul, there is a risk of a confrontation with foreign forces, which could lead to the failure of any peace talks in Afghanistan. Ashraf Ghani has the potential to destroy the peace plan by involving India in it because both Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani are leaning towards India.
It is important for Pakistan to reconcile with the Taliban and thwart the pro-India efforts of Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani. This is a very complex situation that is currently facing Pakistan besides Afghanistan because in any unforeseen situation the country will have to go through new trials. If there will happen a civil war, a large influx of refugees will migrate to Pakistan and their Anti-national elements may come into hiding, which could lead to an increase in terrorism once again.
The Pak-Afghan border management system is expected to be completed by the time the US withdraws, after which Pakistan will be able to use its ability to seal its borders in emergencies. In these circumstances, Pakistan will also have to fight the enemies of the country from three sides, and it is necessary to formulate a joint strategy ahead of time to counter this.
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