The Myanmar question: Present and future

The saying goes that most countries have an army, but Myanmar’s army has a country. Even when it is not formally in power it wields nonpareil influence as a kingmaker. Myanmar or Burma (as it was previously known) has never seen peace throughout its history. The apartheid state is in this labyrinth dilemma since it took its independence from Great Britain.

It was February 1st when the snobbish and obnoxious military Seize power in a Coup d’etat. Since then, the hapless state has seen anything but peace and tranquility. The brutal suppression, oppression, and depression are at their peak. According to the latest figures so far, as many as 800 individuals have been killed, over 4000 Been arrested and busted, While the injured grant total is in thousands.

The military has dominated the apartheid state since 1962. The stubborn force has once again taken full control of the State after a brief civilian span of quasi-democracy that was initiated in 2011.

In the recent polls, the national league for democracy stood victorious by securing approximately 83% of available seats; an overwhelming majority. However, the junta refused to honor the poll results on the pretext of being fraudulent. As if the dismissal of government was not enough, the devilish forces detained all the stalwarts and democratic bigwigs, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and announced a state of emergency under the 2008 constitution of one year. The world witnessed the usual junta tactics i.e., suspension of internet services, closure of markets, and social banks; which resulted in the hoarding of commodities and stocks.

A country-wide Civil disobedience movement has been launched and millions are vigorously taking part in it across the nation. The infamous Myanmar military is famous for nothing but crushing democratic forces and peaceful movements. But what makes the recent uprising distinguishable is the radicalization and mobilization of forces and its transformation and metamorphosis into guerrilla force. But then who said such tactics are enough to coerce Tatmadaw (as the Myanmar military is known famously).

The main characters of the picture include Aung San Suu Kyi and general min Aung.

Aung San Suu Kyi came to the power in 2016 after 1st democratic vote since its existence. She inherited a rich legacy; the daughter of the country’s independence hero General Aung span. She has spent as much as 15 long years under house arrest. Such grace sacrifices won her international fame and prestige and a noble peace prize in 1991. However, in 2010 her image shattered due to her unapologetic and continues support and defense of the military junta for the ethnic Muslim massacre. Not only this but Aung Suu is also accused of several minor ludicrous and several heinous crimes. Currently, she is facing trials for several offenses including the infamous doltish case of the walkie-talkie.

Presently, general min Aung has taken over the country after a successful military coup. Apart from being part and parcel of the military junta, the not-so-liked general is a business magnet as well.

Finally, the response of international and regional players is equally important. The first category includes the so-called defenders of Democratic rule and human rights advocates. These mighty economic powers which include the united states under Biden and other European nations have issued stern warnings backed by strong sanctions and a ban on military generals. They have lambasted the junta’s inhumane treatment and oppressive actions and strongly advocated the immediate release of democratic national leaders. Alas, but all in vain.

The second category includes two economic and strategic giants who have unending and unfathomable interests in Myanmar. This category includes permanent security council members i.e., China, which shares a border with Myanmar and Russia. Both have responded very cautiously and do not bother to issue an unambiguous and clear statement in this regard.

The third category includes United Nations and other human rights organizations. Doubtlessly, all of these have condemned contemporary affairs robustly. Surprisingly, they have remained to the ambit and extent of issuing statements only.

So, What the future holds for Myanmar is uncertain and everything can happen. Some guesses include, first, In the case of a bargain or political deal the political prisoners are likely to have their freedom back. While in the case of contrast, they are likely to end up in jails. Secondly, another bleak possibility is the return of Democracy ferociously. Such an outcome is the ideal scenario, where Myanmar will proceed in the right direction and sooner or later will end up in the list of Democratic and civilized nations. Thirdly and finally, another prediction is that Myanmar will collapse and will become a failed state. The notorious and infamous business of drugs in Myanmar is an open secret. The state is one of the highest producers and manufacturers of drugs. Not to mention the refugee and border crises. There is enough evidence to support the claim that soon a civil war will break out in Myanmar, as the ethnic groups are not on good terms with the junta, they will use every weapon at their disposal, every opportunity at their hand to discredit and dismember, the Tatmadaw. Such an outcome is the worst case. Such a scenario is not in the interests of the world nor the interests of border states. Not only will the nation itself suffer but it will have far-reaching national and international consequences for humanity at large. And perhaps, any recovery from such hell-inferno will consume several years if not decades.

 

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