A few days back we have experienced a violent anti-French protest by Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan (TLP) that has paralyzed the country. This party which has recently emerged as a powerful force to be reckoned with in Pakistani politics is principally fighting against the Blasphemy case that was reported in France when a school teacher, SmaeulPaty showed caricatures of Prophet (PBUH) to the class. Their demands include boycott of French products, expulsion of the French ambassador, and with recent crackdown the release of TLP leader Saad Rizvi-a 26 years old.
However, to achieve their motives they were seen using violent means like protest with police and supporters clashing in the major cities leading to mass destruction. Therefore, it’s important to understand TLP in the context of real and non-time threats that it is and can pose nationally and internationally to Pakistan.
To begin with, the most likely threat TLP and similar religious extremist entities can pose to Pakistan is to leave it isolated on the International stage, which it at least in this complex world of interdependence can’t afford. Expelling ambassadors would mean having diplomatic relations with only a few countries in case any other state move towards such an act of blasphemy. So if Pakistan will fail to knob them timely then their hardline demands like exclusion of French ambassador and boycotting French products would not only pose a challenge to Pakistan’s credibility but would be threatening to its already unstable economy.
As EU is one of Pakistan’s largest export markets worth $6.92 billion (34%) with France alone accounting for 5% of total imports from Pakistan. Not just this, but Pakistan imports from France totaled US $356.05 Million in 2020. Hence with such massive trade going on between two states, cutting ties with France would not mean losing France but the larger European Union that will impact economy. Most recently EU has call for a review on Pakistan’s GSP+ Status that meant another loss of $3.5 billion. Then 80% of Pakistan’s exports to France are textile products which if disrupted would lead to industries closure, unemployment, loss of $1.1 billion, and will put further pressure on Rupees resulting in inflation. So, any miscalculated action on part of Pakistan would be damaging to its already struggling economy.
Then Pakistan’s hydropower sector has to be taken into account while analyzing the non-real-time threats TLP hardline demands could pose to the country. According to the French ambassador, Dr. Marc Barety: total financial aid to Pakistan has reached 800-900 million euros. France has assisted Pakistan for 34.5 megawatts Harpo Skardu Hydropower Project, refurbishment of the powerhouse of Mangla Dam, rehabilitation of Hydropower Training Institute Mangla, second rehabilitation of Warsak Dam, and detailed engineering design of Mohmand dam as well the upcoming assistance for rehabilitation of Chitral and Dargai hydropower projects. So in this state of dependency, if Pakistan boycott France under the pressure of TLP then it would come in its way now or even in the future.
In the longer run, it will affect Pakistan’s image internationally and particularly its tourism sector. As perceiving the threats, France advised its nationals and companies to temporarily leave Pakistan. With Pakistan already perceived as an extremist states, the recent TLP protest has even turned the prospects of Tourism contributing Rs. $1 trillion to Pakistan’s economy by 2025 to a daydream. Not just this but could be damaging to Pakistani Diaspora in France which is Europe’s largest comprising about 10% of the total population.
Most damaging would be the case of FATF as Pakistan has already suffered a loss of almost $38 billion because of its placement on the grey list since 2008. Therefore, TLP violent protests at a time period when Pakistan decision regarding the FATF is scheduled on June, 2021 would not only increase the chances of Pakistan being on the grey list for years to comes but could also move to its black list.
Then as far as Pakistan’s security dynamics are concerned, it’s a security-conscious state that is sandwich between the two nuclear power. With its biggest rival, India in neighbours that always looks up to such an opportunity of exploiting religious factions for its interests and fund them across the border, TLP protesters are yet another soft target for India to exploit. According to reports there were Indian passport holders found in the WhatsApp group of these TLP protestors and out of 400,000 tweets, 70% were from fake accounts with around 380 Indian groups circulating fake news regarding the civil war in Pakistan. Therefore, to prevent India and other rivals from making Pakistan a breeding ground for such extremist tendencies and to stop them from maligning Pakistan’s image internationally, timely response is a must.
Also, analyzing France and India closer times, the TLP violent anti-French protests would be challenging for Pakistan’s security as we have experienced in 2011 when France stopped selling heavy military equipment worth 1.2 billion euro for JF-17 due to the apprehensions raised by India. And established closer military ties with India by selling 36 Rafale Fighter Jets and by reaching an agreement worth $4.16 billion for building six Scorpene submarines. So in this case whereby France shares friendly ties with India, Pakistan has to tackle the situation sensibly as TLP protest in no way benefiting Pakistan but is only adding to problems.
Most harmful TLP can do to Pakistan nationally is setting up an example for other extremist entities like it to engage in violent acts of terror to achieve their demands. These protests in recent times have become part of Pakistan’s culture and are often seen as a means to an end by such extremist entities. Not just this, but it will give a clear-cut message to rivals about the sensitivity of religion in Pakistan and how they can exploit it to attain their goals. Taking example of already separatist tendencies and the instability we have in Baluchistan especially in its Pashtun belt, it’s time Pakistan thinks seriously about countering such religious movements. Now, looking at some of the real time threats TLP has posed to Pakistan.
Firstly, the massive protest by TLP that we see all across is one of the biggest real-time threats Pakistan encounters. As it has not only caused instability but has too promoted internal divisions with each side accusing the other of not fighting for the cause as one should. Dealing with this seems difficult because had the measures been taken on time then we wouldn’t have such a situation as we have today. If from the very start when the government in its negotiation with TLP protestors got the idea of their intentions to call for massive protests would have done the needful then such clashes wouldn’t have happen.
Another real-time threat came to the government in its dealing with the protestors. As PTI government is already under severe criticism by the public for its poor performance, so in this state of crisis where it failed to tackle the situation timely, it just gives another hint for the current government’s incompetency which opposition parties exploited further.
Then the image of Pakistan that is projected internationally with the onset of such violent religious extremist protests by TLP is no less than a threat. Pakistan that is already under havoc for being referred to as a terrorist state, these actions by TLP again projected Pakistan’s image as an extremist state which is why France ordered its nationals to leave Pakistan at the earliest possible. Hence struggling to deal with the economic crisis, internal instability, separatist movements, and political divide, these protests only added to the problems.
Conclusively, time has come when we need to realize the sensitivity of the issue, we have to move beyond using them as a mere pressure group to achieve hidden motives because it’s detrimental to Pakistan. In history, we experienced such sort of hand in glove relationship of the religious and political parties that proved lethal. Annals of the past tell how these religious entities possessed the knack of taking over the government of the time backed by opposition parties. With each passing day, we are transforming these protests into a culture of protests as having seen how the religious entities in past were successful in attaining their goals today’s entities like TLP take them as a practical example.
Pakistan today has to rethink its policies, it has to devise new strategies to deal with such extremist factions. As it is, in reality, a failure on part of the policymakers and the sense of deprivation that has provided these groups a chance to demand their rights in such a violent manner. Quoting Rumi, “Govt needs to create economic opportunities for the youth so to sway them from the hardline religious group”. At this point, Pakistan needs to address public grievances, it has to work intensively towards human development. Now, it’s time to move beyond thinking in terms of your self-interest towards the broader interest of Pakistan. Merely banning is not enough, it’s just the one step out of a number which Pakistan should have taken up till now. Time demands building narratives and giving a clear message at the state level for condemnation and delegitimization of TLP.
Stay tuned to Baaghi TV for more. Download our app for the latest news, updates & interesting content!
