Baaghi TV reports that senior journalist and anchor person Mubasher Lucman has said that the Gilgit-Baltistan elections will be held on November 15th, 2020 with 326 candidates from 23 constituencies. Gilgit-3 is the only constituency where polling has been postponed and elections will now be held on November 22nd.
Mubasher Lucman on the Mubasher Lucman Official YouTube channel, said that the real competition in this election is between the PPP and the PTI. Apart from these, the parties important are the 4 religious parties that have a good vote bank there. There are two Sunni religious parties and two Shia sects. Jamaat-e-Islami is present in Gilgit only to an organizational level. Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s party is limited to Diamer district, but its position there is quite strong. The other two organizations are Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen and Islamic Movement, which can definitely win some seats in this election.
Mubasher Lucman further said that the trend in Gilgit-Baltistan has been that the ruling party wins the elections here, but this time the situation of PTI is not much better. The reason is that, on the one hand, PTI is not very organized internally. His party did worse than expected from opinion polls, which saw them at an advantage about a third of the support.
Pakistan Peoples Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has been campaigning in remote areas of Gilgit-Baltistan for several weeks. Maryam Nawaz from PML-N herself has gone there and is campaigning for elections and both of them intend to stay there till the day of elections. The PTI has sent Kashmir Affairs Minister Amin Gandapur there. There are reports that as the time draws near, more and more people are being given the task of going there and campaigning for PTI.
Mubasher Lucman further said that now let’s look at the constituency wise situation, which party is strong in which constituency.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf جوہر علی
- Pakistan Muslim League-N – Jafarullah Khan
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Amjad Hussain
Registered Voters – 35,840
PPP’s Amjad Hussain is the strongest candidate in this constituency.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Fatehullah Khan
- Pakistan Muslim League-N- Hafiz Hafeez-ur-Rehman
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Jamil Ahmed
Registered Voters – 41,259
Apart from these three parties, Deedar Ali, a former member of the Tehreek-e-Islami Assembly, is a strong candidate in this constituency and will face off against former PML-N chief minister Hafeez-ur-Rehman and this seat will be given to only one of them. The chance of PPP or PTI is very difficult here.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Dr. Iqbal
- Pakistan Muslim League-N-Zulfiqar Ali
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Aftab Haider
Registered Voters – 41,360
Gilgit-3 is the only constituency where polling has been postponed and elections will now be held on November 22. In the last elections, Dr. Muhammad Iqbal has been the Provincial Minister for Construction in this constituency on the ticket of PML-N. He has recently announced to leave PML-N and join PTI, and now he is a PTI candidate.
Prior to Dr. Muhammad Iqbal, Justice (retd) Syed Jaffer Shah, the local president of PTI, was the candidate from this constituency, but he passed away suddenly. Until the death of Syed Jaffer Shah, the position of PTI was very strong in this constituency but now the position of PTI is getting weaker day by day, due to the party’s internal politics, regional vice president Sher Ghazi wanted to get a ticket to replace Syed Jaffar Shah, but the party has given the ticket to Dr. Iqbal.
Angered by the leadership’s decision, Sher Ghazi has filed papers to contest the election as an independent against Dr. Iqbal. Besides, Syed Sohail Abbas, son of PTI candidate Syed Jaffer Shah, had also demanded a ticket from the party and had submitted nomination papers as an independent candidate. Now, if the PTI fails to persuade Sher Ghazi and Syed Sohail Abbas to withdraw their nomination papers, the party’s vote will be split into three. This will greatly reduce the chances of success of the PTI in this constituency.
After Dr. Iqbal’s joining the PTI, the PML-N issued a ticket to Zulfiqar Ali, who will contest his first election, so the chances of the PML-N winning are slim.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Agha Zulfiqar Ali
- PML-N Arif Hussain
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Amjad Hussain
Registered Voters – 23,171
PTI candidates are in a very weak position in this constituency. The main contest will be between Baqir Sheikh of PPP and Islamic Movement.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf An adjustment has been made
- Pakistan Muslim League-N- Sajjad Hussain
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Mirza Hussain
Registered Voters – 14,001
There are 26 candidates in this constituency which is the highest number of candidates in any constituency. In this constituency, the situation of PTI is the same as in constituency three. Nagar district president Javed Ali Manwa wanted to get party ticket from this constituency, but when he was not given a ticket by the PTI, he also decided to contest as an independent candidate.
On the other hand, the PPP is in a similar situation. The General Secretary of the PPP wanted to contest from this constituency on a party ticket, but due to being ignored by the party, he is entering the field as an independent, and since the number of candidates in this constituency is very high, there may be an upset. In other words, there is a chance that an independent candidate can win from here instead of a candidate from a big party.
While Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has made seat adjustment with Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen in this constituency, because this religious party is very strong in this constituency, Haji Rizwan of Majlis has won the last election from here.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Col. (retd) Obaidullah Baig
- Pakistan Muslim League-N-Rehan Shah
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Zahoor Karim
Registered Voters – 43,603
Col. Obaidullah of PTI can get the seat from this constituency but, this constituency is also a victim of PTI’s internal politics.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Raja Muhammad Zakaria Khan Maqpoon
- Pakistan Muslim League-N – Muhammad Akbar Taban
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Syed Mehdi Shah
Registered Voters – 17,127
It is very difficult to defeat PPP’s Syed Mehdi Shah from here.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf An adjustment has been made
- PML-N Muhammad Saeed
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Syed Muhammad Ali Shah
Registered Voters – 39,567
In this constituency, PML-N has manipulated and issued a ticket to Muhammad Saeed, who was earlier a worker of Majlis-e-Wahdat Muslimeen and wanted a ticket for MWM. But due to not getting ticket, he joined PML-N and is now contesting elections on the lion’s share.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has made a seat adjustment with Majlis-e-Wahdat-e-Muslimeen in this constituency as it is the home ground of MWM, and the PTI knows that only the MWM will succeed there, so this decision has been made.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Haji Fida Mohammad Nashad
- Pakistan Muslim League-N
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Minister Waqar Ali
Registered Voters – 25,562
Only 4 candidates from different political parties are contesting from this constituency. No independent candidate is contesting in this constituency. In the last elections, Fida Muhammad Nashad had won from this constituency but at that time he was in PML-N but now due to his leaving the party, the position of PML-N in this constituency has become very weak.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Minister Hassan
- PML-N Ghulam Abbas
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Muhammad Wazir Khan
Registered Voters – 26,839
In this constituency, the position of PTI Minister Hassan is quite strong.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Syed Amjad Ali Zaidi
- Pakistan Muslim League-N-Shabbir Hussain
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Niaz Ali
Registered Voters – 26,869
The last election from this constituency was won by PML-N candidate Iqbal Hassan and he has been a member of the Assembly but the PML-N did not give him a ticket this time due to which he is now contesting the election as an independent candidate. But here PTI’s Amjad Zaidi has a very strong position.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Raja Muhammad Azam Khan
- PML-N Muhammad Tahir Shugri
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Imran Nadeem
Registered Voters – 36,183
After Skardu Constituency No. 9, only 4 candidates are contesting from this constituency. No independent candidate is contesting in this constituency either.
In this constituency, the MWM withdrew its candidate in support of the PTI. Due to which the position of PTI has improved but the competition here is always very tough.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Muhammad Khalid Khurshid Khan
- Pakistan Muslim League-N-Rana Farman Ali
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Abdul Hameed Khan
Registered voters – 33,378
Khalid Khurshid of PTI is the strongest candidate in this constituency and is a contender for the important post in the next government setup.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Shamsul Haq Lone
- Pakistan Muslim League-N-Rana Muhammad Farooq
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Dr. Muzaffar Ali
Registered Voters – 29,023
With the support of other PTI candidates in the constituency, Shams Lone is making waves. On the other hand, PPP and PML-N do not have strong candidates. So it is not difficult for PTI to succeed here.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf – Nowshad Alam
- Pakistan Muslim League-N- Abdul Wajid
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Bashir Ahmad Khan
Registered Voters – 35,185
The PTI still needs a lot of hard work in this constituency, but it also means that Nowshad Alam has a good vote bank. That is why they can be successful.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Atiqullah
- PML-N Muhammad Anwar
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Haji Dilbar Khan
Registered Voters – 35,405
In this constituency, despite the opposition of Abdul Aziz, who lost his ticket in Chilas, the position of Atiqullah of PTI is much better.
PML-N has given ticket to his nephew Anwar after the death of its member minister Janbaz Khan but since this is its first election, no special comment can be made on it.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Haji Haider Khan
- Pakistan Muslim League-N – President Alam
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Abdul Ghaffar Khan
Registered Voters – 29,955
In the last election from this constituency, Haji Haider Khan had won on the ticket of PML-N but now he has left PML-N and joined the ruling party PTI due to which the position of PML-N in this constituency is very weak.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Haji Gulbar Khan
- Pakistan Muslim League-N
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Sadia Danish
Registered Voters – 18,907
PML-N has not fielded its candidate Imran Vakil yet. On behalf of PPP, Sadia Danish will just go home. Therefore, Haji Gulbar Khan, who came here from JUI and joined PTI, is the only notable candidate.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Zafar Mohammad Shadam Khel
- PML-N Atif Salman
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Syed Jalal Ali Shah
Registered Voters – 37,808
In this constituency, Zafar Shadamkhel has to deal with strong candidates like Nawaz Naji and Jalal Ali Shah of PPP, son of Pir Karam Ali Shah. Which is a very difficult task for them. In any case, the PPP will get this seat.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Nazir Ahmad
- Pakistan Muslim League-N-Muhammad Nazar Khan
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Ali Madad Sher
Registered Voters – 42,533
After Nagar 2, this constituency also has 26 candidates. In the last election from this constituency, Fida Khan had won on an N-League ticket but this time he will contest as an independent if he does not get a ticket from the party.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Raja Jahanzeb Khan
- PML-N Ghulam Ali
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Muhammad Ayub Shah
Registered Voters – 34,973
Raja Jahanzeb, a well-known PTI candidate, is facing stiff competition and difficulties this time. In this constituency, he is also facing opposition from his own people. Ghulam Muhammad, a senior PML-N politician, is making his position and Ayub Shah of the PPP cannot be ignored.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Muhammad Ibrahim Sanai
- Pakistan Muslim League-N – Razaul Haq
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Muhammad Jaffer
Registered Voters – 29,104
The last election from this constituency was won by Muhammad Ibrahim Sanai on PML-N ticket but now he is the PTI candidate. And their position is very strong.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Amna Bibi
- PML-N Ghulam Hussain
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Ghulam Ali Haideri
Registered Voters – 27,522
This constituency is quite male dominant so if any independent candidate meets Amna Bibi or PTI worked hard in this constituency then this seat can be won otherwise it is very difficult for Amna Bibi to win.
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Syed Shamsuddin
- Pakistan Muslim League-N – Manzoor Hussain
- Pakistan Peoples Party – Muhammad Ismail
Registered Voters – 20,187
It is very difficult to defeat PPP candidate Muhammad Ismail in this constituency.
Mubasher Lucman further said that if only Baltistan is mentioned then these nine seats are formed, which is being emphasized by each party. The PML-N and the PPP also started their campaign from there. In 2009, the PPP won 7 of the 9 seats in Baltistan. In 2015, the PML-N won 6 out of 9 constituencies in Baltistan. Now that the PTI has its first election in Gilgit, to this day, I think PTI-5, PPP-3 and MWMM can get one seat from Baltistan. With PML-N members leaving the party, it is difficult for them to win seats in Baltistan. Anyway, his statement against the Pakistan Army is hurting him a lot in this election.
Mubasher Lucman added that there are 13 seats for the PPP that they can win but, if they get even seven or eight seats out of here, they will be in a position to form a government with the ITP, JUI and a few independent candidates and the chances are that the few seats that the PML-N could get from here will also be with the PPP because, in the PDM, these parties are with it anyway.
The PTI may get a lot of seats from there, but it will not be easy for them to get a majority and form a government. Therefore, there is still time if the PTI ends its internal politics and fights within the party and focuses on its campaign then it can surely succeed there.
Stay tuned to Baaghi TV for the latest news and updates!