U.S designs software to predict China’s response to U.S military actions

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U.S designs software to predict China's response to U.S military actions

Dec 16, 2021: U.S. military commanders in the Pacific have developed a software tool to predict how the Chinese government will respond to U.S. actions in the region, such as military sales, U.S.-backed military activity and even congressional visits to hotspots such as Taiwan. 

Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks was briefed on the new tool during a visit to the United States Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii on Tuesday.

“With the spectrum of conflict and the challenge sets spanning down into the grey zone. What you see is the need to be looking at a far broader set of indicators, weaving that together and then understanding the threat interaction,” Hicks said in an interview aboard a military jet en route to California.

The device calculates “strategic friction,” a defense official said. It looks at data from early 2020 and examines the key activities that have affected US-China relations. The computer-based system will help the Pentagon predict whether certain actions will provoke a Chinese response.

In October, the Chinese military condemned the United States and Canada for sending warships across the Taiwan Strait, saying they were a threat to peace and stability in the region. The U.S. official said the incident and other similar incidents have sparked a demand for the device, to ensure the United States does not inadvertently offend China with its actions.

While relations between the United States and China are already at an all-time low, the tool has provoked numerous activities, such as a visit to Taiwan’s congress, arms sales to allies in the region, or provocation when several US ships passing through the Taiwan Strait.

The strait is claimed by China as its own territory, which has been democratically governed by Taiwan, and has repeatedly deployed air missions in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the past year.  The official said the new software would allow US officials to plan strategic operations four months in advance.

Deputy secretary Hicks is touring US bases this week while the Biden administration’s draft 2023 budget takes shape. The Department of Defence hopes to move budget dollars toward a military that can deter China and Russia.

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