UNSC on Kashmir: Possible Outcome and Pakistan’s Dilemma?

The UNSC meeting on Kashmir is governed under United Nations Security Council (UNSC) provisional rules (United Nations Charter Article 30) which allow the members and president of the UNSC to formulate its own rules while adjudicating any matter presented to it, through its permanent member or introduced by its President (refer to Rule 1-4, Chapter I: Meeting).

This is the weakest point in the entire process for Pakistan and allows immense gaps for Indian diplomats to play around with the help of other four permanent (France, Russia, US and UK) and ten on permanent members which include Germany, South Africa, Belgium, Poland, Côte d’Ivoire, Peru, Dominican Republic, Kuwait, Equatorial Guinea, and Indonesia. It is all zero sum game theory (a micro economics theory often used by the diplomatic maneuvering) which needs to determine what are possible likely outcomes on the said meeting and if there is any unfavorable outcome likely on the resolution. Initially the permanent members (which includes China and has stood by Pakistan so far) along with the President will meet up and determine if they need to discuss it further with the 10 non permanent members or not?

France, Russia, and perhaps US will not go against India. If Russia or France do not veto the whole process it is likely to get down to some deliberation with the rest of the members. What are most likely scenarios (these are hypothetical in nature and others possibilities equally exist):

1) Some of the permanent members (excluding China) do not want this to be deliberated any further and the resolution is not tabled.

2) Permanent members (five in total) want Indian-Pakistan to deescalate the situation and bilaterally sit down to discuss and sort out the problems amongst themselves. UNSC permanent member like US offers mediation.

3) UNSC decides to discuss the issue at length with other non permanent 10 members as discussed above, however the members request India to relax curfew restrictions and deescalate the tensions with Pakistan.

All of the above do not favor Pakistani stance and fall short of fixing the problem; how to implement UN resolutions on Kashmir, allow the plebiscite as per UN resolutions, or for that matter even the abrogated article 370 of the Indian Constitution. Pakistan needs to be thinking out of the box (UN option is not the end either) it needs to come up with other options, and also beyond the fact that how it can involve the US or some of the other countries into the “permanently” fixing the Kashmir issue.

One of the key areas which Pakistan and Kashmiris must focus is on building a pressure within India.

Pakistan may also like to look at the building pressure at the Indian Supreme Court which is least looked into option. Indian or Whatever happens, if Pakistan does not get an opportunity to fight the Kashmir cause in the UNSC, then Pakistan will find more isolated than ever before. All the more reason for unity, faith and of course finding more alternate options for Kashmir solution and also for the future of Pakistani diplomacy.

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