Growing Russia-India-China Engagement Could Pose Strategic Challenge for Pakistan: Indian Analyst

The growing diplomatic engagement among Russia, India and China on multilateral platforms, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS, presents both challenges and opportunities for Pakistan and could potentially develop into a major strategic concern for Islamabad in the future, senior analyst Rohit Sharma said during a conversation.

Sharma noted that improving relations between India and China, a gradual reduction in border tensions and growing economic engagement between the two Asian powers could eventually influence Beijing’s policy towards Pakistan.

“China’s priority is to maintain stability along its borders and keep its relationship with India manageable,” he said, adding that any sustained improvement in India-China ties could have implications for Pakistan’s strategic position.

According to Sharma, there has also been a noticeable decline in high-level contacts between China and Pakistan over the recent period. He pointed to the recent SCO summit in Bishkek, where Chinese President Xi Jinping appeared to show greater diplomatic engagement with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while his interaction with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was relatively brief.

He said Pakistan needed to take these developments seriously, particularly in the context of Islamabad’s increasing engagement with the United States.

Sharma observed that the growing proximity among Russia, India and China could also influence the dynamics of multilateral forums. At platforms such as the SCO and BRICS, India could become more effective in advancing its diplomatic position, particularly on issues relating to terrorism and regional security.

“If Russia and China begin attaching greater weight to India’s position on key regional issues, Pakistan could face increasing difficulty in maintaining its diplomatic space within these forums,” he said.

Regarding Russia, Sharma said the situation remained complex. Moscow was interested in expanding defence, energy and trade relations with Pakistan, but its longstanding defence, economic and energy ties with India prevented Russia from becoming a full-fledged strategic supporter of Islamabad at the expense of New Delhi.

At the same time, he said Pakistan continued to have significant strategic advantages in its relationship with China.

“China remains Pakistan’s major defence partner, the principal driver of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and an important diplomatic partner on regional and international issues,” Sharma said.

He added that as long as India-China relations did not return to complete normalcy, Pakistan’s strategic importance to Beijing was likely to remain significant.

Overall, Sharma described the growing diplomatic proximity among Russia, India and China not as an immediate threat to Pakistan but as a strategic warning that Islamabad should not ignore.

He stressed that Pakistan would need to maintain its close relationship with China while simultaneously pursuing balanced ties with Russia, the United States, Gulf countries and other major powers.

“The long-term impact on Pakistan will largely depend on whether the improvement in India-China relations remains limited to diplomatic engagement or develops into deeper and sustained strategic and economic cooperation,” Sharma said.

He added that if the rapprochement remained limited, the impact on Pakistan could be relatively manageable. However, deeper and more durable cooperation between New Delhi and Beijing could require Islamabad to adopt a new diplomatic strategy and reassess its approach to the evolving regional balance of power.