BNP Landslide Raises Concerns in New Delhi Over Strained India-Bangladesh Ties

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) decisive victory in the February 12 parliamentary elections, with Tarique Rahman poised to become prime minister, has sparked apprehension in India about the future of bilateral relations, ending the close alignment enjoyed under ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

India’s ties with Bangladesh deteriorated sharply after Hasina’s 2024 exile to New Delhi following the student-led uprising, with accusations of harboring her and her aides fueling anti-India sentiment in Dhaka. The BNP’s historical record during its 2001-2006 rule, including allegations of providing safe havens to Indian northeastern insurgent groups, has long raised security red flags in New Delhi.

Analysts highlight several potential negative repercussions from the BNP’s two-thirds majority win approximately 209-213 seats:

The unresolved status of Sheikh Hasina remains a major flashpoint, as Rahman has conditioned improved relations on addressing Dhaka’s demands for her extradition to face charges related to crimes against humanity. This could prolong diplomatic standoffs and hinder cooperation.

A BNP government is anticipated to pursue a more assertive stance on longstanding disputes, including border killings by Indian security forces, equitable sharing of transboundary rivers like the Teesta, trade imbalances favoring India, and possibly reviving SAARC to dilute bilateral focus, issues that may lead to heightened friction and reduced concessions from Dhaka.

Rahman’s “Bangladesh First” foreign policy, emphasizing mutual respect, equality, and strategic autonomy without over-reliance on any neighbor, signals a diversification away from the perceived dependency under Hasina. This could translate into deeper economic and defense engagements with China, already expanding its footprint, and warmer ties with Pakistan, potentially forming a challenging regional dynamic for India and complicating security in its northeastern states.

Although Jamaat-e-Islami’s performance (around 60-70 seats) fell short of fears, its influence within or alongside the BNP coalition raises lingering worries about minority protections, particularly for Bangladesh’s Hindu community amid recent communal incidents that have drawn sharp criticism in India.

Experts describe the shift as moving from a “golden era” of trusted partnership under Hasina to a more transactional, institution-driven relationship requiring constant management of crises, incentives, and high-friction files like Hasina’s presence, border security, and China’s growing role.

Despite these challenges, India’s prompt congratulations from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, pledging support for a democratic, progressive, and inclusive Bangladesh, reflects pragmatic efforts to engage the new leadership and safeguard shared interests in stability, trade, and countering extremism.

As Rahman prepares for a likely swearing-in by February 17, the coming period will reveal whether diplomatic outreach can offset these negatives or if tensions persist in this new era of balanced but wary ties.