Will IMF or won’t IMF?
12th is the date set for the board meeting of IMF for determining whether or not Pakistan will be granted the new 9-month loan program. Holy Moly! Nine months? To get money, make the ‘structural changes,’ a vague term yet undisclosed by the IMF to the hapless public- and return the $77 billion dollar returnable this year!
Returnable?
No!
Doable?
No!
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This is the case even if UAE & SA invest $46 billion dollars cumulatively once the IMF programme is unlocked. That, dear reader, IF & WHEN it comes. In either case, this will not be funding but investment.
Pictured above is IMF Chief, Kristalina Georgieva.
Pakistan had implemented most of IMF’s demands under the initial agreement of 2022-23 when IMF pulled out. So, what exactly was committed by PM Shahbaz Sharif in that miraculous evening that made a 9-month deal come through?
Pakistan needs $77 billion to fund its external payment obligations alone & that includes international debt servicing, in financial year ending July 1, 2024. ‘As per the data released by SBP on Monday, the net foreign reserves held by commercial banks stood at $5,270.9 million. As such, the total liquid foreign reserves held by Pakistan reached $9,340.8 million as of June 23, 2023.’ (Pakistan Observer)
Pictured above is current Pakistani Prime Minister, and senior PML-N leader, Shehbaz Sharif.
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Is the math adding up?
No!
Pictured above is current Finance Minister and senior PML-N leader, Ishaq Dar.
Can any political dispensation handle the economic crisis? No, says senior analyst Shahab Jafri in the writer’s vlog Yasmeen ki Baithak a few days ago. An economic analytical expert, Jafri says any political set-up needs votes, promises made, concessions ensured that fly in the face of taking hard steps that will probably need to bee taken. In either case, it’s a rough ride for the common man. Inflation must rise, petrol/diesel will rise, passing off increase in end-product to the consumers.
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Pictured above are IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif.
Any solutions?
We will wake up one of these days & smell the coffee!
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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9
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A hopeless financial scenario for year 2023-4 during which Pakistan is required to pay 💰 77 billion; simply beyond our capacity. The govt will have to look for innovative solutions including deferment or at least restructuring of debts.
Bloggers should do better than just reporting what happened. And especially predict possible scenarios of how things will work out – best case and worst case. You have just come up with “We will wake up one of these days & smell the coffee!” What kind of insight is this and how the reader is any wiser about the situation? The only thing he will ask is “Ok, but who will pay for the coffee or you will be allowed only to smell it but not drink it?”