Will the border clashes between Iran and Afghanistan escalate?

A bilateral water treaty was signed between Iran and Afghanistan in 1973. However, climate-induced internal migration in Iran has been largely attributed to water shortages and increasing hot weather. In 2021, approximately 41,000 Iranians were displaced from their natural habitats due to land degradation, droughts, and natural disasters.

Heightened tensions have resulted in border clashes between the forces of Iran and Afghanistan. Iran claims that Afghanistan is releasing less water, thereby violating the bilateral treaty. The southeastern region of Iran, which is severely affected by drought, heavily relies on water flow from Afghanistan.

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Afghanistan, too, is facing low water levels and states that even with the opening of dams, water will not flow into Iran. According to the bilateral water treaty, Afghanistan is obligated to provide 850 million cubic meters of water annually from the Helmand River.

Iran asserts that since the Taliban-led government came into power, it has only received about 4 percent of the water it is entitled to under the treaty (Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s special representative to Afghanistan: RFE/RFL Radio Farda, May 19, 2023). As the water shortage situation worsens, Iran faces protests from its people.

On the flip side; the ongoing drought in Afghanistan, persisting from 2021 into 2022-2023, has further exacerbated the water crisis. According to a report by UNICEF on November 20, 2022, “79 percent of households reported they do not have sufficient water for their daily needs, including drinking, cooking, bathing, or hygiene. The impact of both drought and economic shock is having a devastating effect on food security and family coping mechanisms.”

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There are doubts regarding Afghanistan’s claim of having less water, particularly considering the completion of the Kamal Khan Dam in 2022. Afghanistan’s President Ghani had expressed the need for Afghanistan to cease providing free water and proposed an exchange of oil for water with Iran. This raises questions about Afghanistan’s water scarcity plea.

Whether the previous drought experienced by Afghanistan persists despite the increased storage capacity of the Kamal Khan Dam can only be evaluated by independent water experts. Seeking their assessment and reaching a determination should be the potential way forward.

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The writer is a lawyer, academic and political analyst. She has authored a book titled ‘A Comparative Analysis of Media & Media Laws in Pakistan.’ She can be contacted at: yasmeenali62@gmail.com and tweets at @yasmeen_9

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