Global Recovery of Aviation Industry and the forecast

The global aviation industry plummeted like any other business in 2019 and accurate estimates of the losses are still undetermined as various figures coming out from different stalwarts show different numbers but for sure they all are very bleak.

The important figures could be as to how the industry is performing now and will it be able to see some recovery in year 2021?

Let’s try and evaluate the present situation with a couple of factors which are playing the major role. One being the mass level vaccinations and other being recession created by the pandemic. Various nations realized that closures or lockdowns, if enacted like it was done in March 2020, will shatter the economy further and many people may have to live below the poverty line.

National Aviation Policy 2019 and Failure of Aviation Industry

CAA takes notice of large-scale domestic flight cancellation

Hence, realizing the dark picture that may engulf them and the world, have focused on mass vaccinations and to open up the travel which is an essential part of any economy, as soon as they reached from 30 to 70% these countries started to ease up the travel restrictions.

The best example at the moment is Japan which has reached at 67% of the pre pandemic passenger loads. On the other hand, despite almost 100% vaccinations China is still not willing to open up its borders without stringent measure which affects the travel.

As the situation is changing rapidly we possibly see a 40% recovery of the aviation industry by the year end. That is like a global revenue of US $ 266 Billions for the airlines industry. This is still very positive outlook since most of the predictions for the recovery to start for Aviation Industry were for year 2023.

Another bird-hit incident at Karachi International Airport

Bird-hit incidents with the PIA aircraft on the rise

Social media spoofs up after CAA invents technology for scaring the birds

Since we are witnessing a gradual return to normalcy it is optimistic to say that with the Merck announcing a success in developing anti viral drug against COVID-19 and Federal Drug Authority, USA considering it’s approval, now it’s a matter of time that a treatment will be available sooner than later, hence, we may see full global recovery of Aviation Industry by second quarter of 2023. What I am predicting is that by the year end 2023 we will surpass a global airlines revenue figure of US $ 666 Billions that we saw in the pre pandemic year of 2019.

This could have been even faster or may be the next year itself but a cautions approach by a few European Countries, Australia, USA and China may prevent it from happening. USA and Australia may open up soon but China has no plans till second quarter of 2022 the least.

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