US Exit Reshapes Iraq’s Security Landscape
End of US military mission leaves Baghdad facing a new regional balance
Key Developments:
- US completes withdrawal from its remaining Iraqi bases
- Baghdad assumes greater responsibility for national security
- Iran-linked groups retain significant influence in Iraq
WASHINTON (The Washington Post) — October 01, 2026: The United States has completed the withdrawal of its remaining military forces from Iraq, ending the Iraq-based phase of its long-running campaign against Islamic State and marking a major change in the country’s security environment.
The departure follows an agreement between Washington and Baghdad under which the US-led coalition would conclude its military mission in Iraq. The remaining personnel and equipment were moved out of the country, with the US retaining the ability to support counterterrorism efforts from neighbouring Jordan.
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The withdrawal brings to an end a military presence that followed the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 and a later return of American forces after Islamic State captured large areas of Iraq and Syria. The coalition’s campaign eventually helped Iraqi forces defeat the group’s territorial control in Iraq.
US officials have described the conclusion of the Iraq-based operation as the successful completion of its military objective. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the departure from Erbil Air Base marked the “successful conclusion of the military mission that defeated ISIS in Iraq.”
The end of the military deployment nevertheless changes the regional balance. Iran has developed extensive political, economic and security relationships in Iraq over the years, while several armed groups with links to Tehran remain part of the country’s political and security landscape. Reuters reported that Iraqi analysts view the US departure as potentially giving Iran and its allies greater room to exercise influence.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf previously described the changing situation by saying, “The resistance front is the one prevailing now,” referring to Iranian-aligned political and armed groups operating across the region.
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At the same time, Baghdad is seeking greater control over armed formations operating within the country. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has backed efforts to place weapons under state authority, with the timeline for the broader disarmament process extending into 2027.
The Iraqi government has also presented the US departure as a transition toward greater national sovereignty. Al-Zaidi has said Baghdad wants the state to remain the principal authority over decisions involving peace and war, while shifting relations with international partners toward economic and development cooperation.
US forces are leaving Iraq and Syria as Iranian strikes have broken the network behind America’s Gulf presence. Turkey, Iran and Israel will shape what follows, and the war has shown how unequally they are equipped to do so. CREDIT: The National Context.
The security implications remain uncertain. Iraqi forces have accumulated substantial experience fighting Islamic State, but questions remain over their capacity to independently provide some capabilities previously supported by the international coalition, particularly intelligence, logistics and air defence.
The withdrawal also comes as Iraq attempts to balance its relationships with Washington, Tehran and other regional powers. Rather than ending US-Iraq cooperation altogether, the transition is expected to place greater emphasis on diplomatic engagement, training, intelligence cooperation and other forms of security assistance.
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Analysts cited by Al Jazeera have also pointed to the continuing threat from Islamic State sleeper cells and the possibility of tensions involving armed groups operating inside Iraq. The extent to which Baghdad can maintain internal security while managing competing external relationships will remain an important factor in Iraq’s post-withdrawal landscape.
The conclusion of the US military mission therefore represents more than the departure of foreign troops. It marks a transition in Iraq’s security arrangements, with Baghdad taking greater responsibility while Iran-linked political and armed actors remain influential and Washington shifts much of its regional counter-Islamic State role outside Iraq.
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