COVID-19 | BMJ Retracts 2024 Excess Mortality Study

Key Developments:

BMJ retracts a 2024 excess-death study over misinformation concerns.
Review found limited original work and unbalanced explanations of mortality.

LONDON (BMJ Group/Radio France International) — August 15, 2026: BMJ Group has formally retracted a 2024 research paper examining excess mortality in Western countries, citing misinformation concerning possible causes of the deaths and the limited amount of original research carried out by the authors.

The paper, titled “Excess mortality across countries in the Western World since the COVID-19 pandemic: ‘Our World in Data’ estimates of January 2020 to December 2022,” was published in the open-access journal BMJ Public Health in 2024. It examined mortality trends across Western countries during the first three years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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The study subsequently attracted substantial media and online attention, including claims that its findings demonstrated a link between COVID-19 vaccination and excess deaths. However, the journal had already clarified in an expression of concern that the research did not investigate or establish a causal relationship between vaccination and mortality.

Concerns over Study’s Interpretation

According to BMJ Group, concerns were raised soon after publication over the paper’s quality, originality and presentation. An expression of concern was issued while investigations were conducted.

The Princess Máxima Centre in Utrecht, which had been the institutional affiliation of three of the four authors, conducted its own investigation and provided anonymised findings to BMJ Group in 2025. The investigation found no evidence of malicious intent, fabrication, falsification of data or plagiarism among the authors it examined. However, it raised concerns about how the possible causes of excess mortality were presented.

The centre concluded that the paper gave disproportionate attention to the possibility that COVID-19 containment measures and vaccination contributed to excess mortality, despite the research not actually investigating the causes of those deaths. It also raised concerns about the selective presentation of supporting literature.

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BMJ Group subsequently conducted its own review after communicating with the study’s corresponding author and guarantor. The publisher concluded that the discussion lacked sufficient balance, included misinformation concerning possible causes of excess mortality and did not adequately describe the limited original work undertaken by the authors.

Common symptoms of Coronavirus, COVID-19.

BMJ explains Decision to Retract Paper

Dr Helen Macdonald, publication ethics and content integrity editor at BMJ Group, said the case involved several issues that required examination.

“This case was complicated because of the multiple issues requiring investigation,”

Macdonald said, explaining that the process involved examining how the research had been conducted and subsequently presented.

She also said the journal considered it important to hear directly from the corresponding author and guarantor during its review.

“We understood she wasn’t available to contribute to the Princess Máxima Centre’s investigation.”

BMJ Group said the centre had not made its complete investigation report public, but a report supplied to the journal was attached to the retraction notice.

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Retraction does not Establish cause of Excess Deaths

The retraction concerns the reliability and presentation of the paper and should not itself be interpreted as establishing a particular cause for excess mortality during the pandemic.

The original research examined excess mortality — deaths occurring above the number expected under normal circumstances — but did not establish that COVID-19 vaccines, containment measures or any other single factor caused those deaths. BMJ Public Health had explicitly warned about such interpretations in its earlier expression of concern.

The paper’s withdrawal followed more than two years of scrutiny. Material being discussed on 14 August 2026 also noted that the study had received significant attention online and had been cited in wider debates over COVID-19 vaccination and mortality.

BMJ Group said the institution involved in the investigation and two of the four authors supported the decision to retract the paper. The formal retraction notice now marks the study as withdrawn from the scientific record.

The case underscores the importance of distinguishing between observed mortality trends and evidence establishing their causes, particularly when scientific findings are subsequently used in wider public-health debates.

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