Joe Biden’s Administration — favourable to Pakistan or a ‘business as usual’?

London (Thursday, 19 November): Chuck Hagel, former US Secretary of Defense, summed up the US foreign policy goals as— “Our foreign policy needs to support our energy, economic, defense, and domestic policies. It all falls within the arch of national interests. There will be windows of opportunities— but they will open and shut quickly”.

Conversely, it all depends upon making of TeamBiden.

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We Pakistanis start becoming either over optimistic or excessively cautious with the change of administration at the White House/Capitol Hill. We need to grow up now.

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Much depends on Joe Biden’s choice for the following one-dozen key cabinet slots — in addition to the Vice President:

1) Secretary of State

2) Secretary of Defense

3) Chairman JCS/Commander CENTCOM

4) Assistant Secretary of State for ME/ South Asia

5) National Security Advisor

6) Treasury Secretary

7) US Ambassador to the UN

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[bs-quote quote=”We Pakistanis start becoming either over optimistic or excessively cautious with the change of administration at the White House/Capitol Hill. We need to grow up now.” style=”style-17″ align=”center” color=”#dd0000″ author_name=”Ejaz Hussain ” author_job=”Contributor, Baaghi TV “][/bs-quote]

8) Attorney General

9) US Envoy for Afghanistan & Pakistan

10) US Ambassador to Islamabad

11) Secretary for Homeland Security

12) VP Kamla Harris*

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As I shared with you a few weeks ago, the list of some cabinet hopefuls to join Joe Biden’s team —

*If Secretary of State is picked from among John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, Susan Rice—it will be good for Pakistan. These three American statesmen are not hostile towards Islamabad.

They are skeptical about India, but given the Indian intensive lobbying during Biden’s electoral campaign, countering China, the Kamala Harris factor, 3 million NRIs, Ro Khanna, Tulsi Gabbard, fifty Indian billionaires in US, the Google/Facebook etc. — Joe Biden’s administration will pursue a pro-India foreign policy, to begin with.

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[bs-quote quote=”Joe Biden’s administration will pursue a pro-India foreign policy, to begin with.” style=”style-17″ align=”center” color=”#dd0000″ author_name=”Ejaz Hussain ” author_job=”Contributor, Baaghi TV”][/bs-quote]

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*Pakistan’s successful regional diplomacy (especially military diplomacy) during the last year or so — will add to Islamabad’s weight vis-à-vis Oval Office’s ‘thinking of future’.

The factors like strong Pak Army, crucial role in Taliban-Afghan peace, strength of Pak-China relations/CPEC, emerging Pak-Russia friendship, relations with Turkey/Iran and Central Asia/Azerbaijan, and PM IK’s personal outlook/conduct—will definitely entice TeamBiden to think twice before conceding too much to India.

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*Due to Afghan Taliban’s HQ in Doha, Qatar’s wealth, Pak-Qatar cordial relations, Qatar-Saudi/UAE loggerheads, strong US-Qatari ties (USAF regional HQ in Doha) — Pakistan will remain important to US for their present/future plans in the ME-South Asian region.

*On a minor — but moralistically major — issue of Dr. Afia Siddiqui will be rekindled during Joe Biden’s presidency. Joe Biden is a compassionate person — he will reconsider Dr. Afia’s case, but it all depends as to who is appointed as US Attorney General and how Pakistan pursues it.

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If Elizabeth Warren or Sally Yates — become AG — things will be possible to get Dr. Afia some relief — as both Warren and Yates are fairly humanistic in demeanour.

[bs-quote quote=”Pakistan will remain important to US for their present/future plans in the ME-South Asian region.” style=”style-17″ align=”center” color=”#dd0000″ author_name=”Ejaz Hussain ” author_job=”Contributor, Baaghi TV”][/bs-quote]

*The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (MBS) and Sheikhs of UAE (MBZ) — may NOT support Pakistan — on the contrary, they may urge their American masters to tighten screws around Islamabad. Princes MBS & MBZ will continue pressuring/at times coercing Pakistan — until Islamabad is firm on its economic footings.

*Interestingly, Nawaz Sharif and his sons—Hussain/Hassan are trying to grab opportunities vis-à-vis Kamala Harris.

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To put pressure on PM IK and Pak Army Chief — the Sharif’s may use Doug Emhoff in DC—as they are being helped and supported by Priti Patel in London.

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In a nutshell — whosoever comes into power in the US, will robustly pursue the vital interests of the United States.

However — we should remain ‘cautiously optimistic’.

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As a student of history, if I’m entrusted with looking after my country’s prosperity, stability and security — I would dodge, but not lie, to pursue national interests.

In the form of Sharif’s and Zardari’s—we have already paid a heavy price when their personal/special interests won out over our collective national interests.